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Green to Grey: Spatial Transformation and Urban expansion of Panjim City -India (2003-2023)

*Deepak Jyotiba Kumbhar orcid  -  Department of Geography and Research Center, Parvatibai Chowgule College of Arts and Science (Autonomous), Margao - Goa, India, India
Nandkumar Sawant orcid  -  Department of Geography and Research Center, Parvatibai Chowgule College of Arts and Science (Autonomous), Margao - Goa, India, India
Rajiv Kumar Chaturvedi  -  Department of Humanities and Social Sciences, Birla Institute of Technology & Science, Pilani K. K. Birla Goa Campus, India

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Abstract

Urban expansion in cities poses critical challenges to sustainability and environmental resilience. The study evaluates the spatial pattern of urban expansion and transformation of Panjim, the capital of Goa, India, from 2003 to 2023. The core focus is to analyze the transformation of green landscapes into built-up areas. Using a combined approach of geospatial techniques, demographic indicators, and the Shannon entropy index, it quantifies patterns of urban expansion and change. The research analyses changes in land use and land cover (LULC), demographic trends, and real estate values. For LULC change, Satellite imagery from IRS LISS III and LISS IV was used to map built-up areas and vegetation loss, while Shannon's Entropy Index was used to measure urban sprawl and spatial dispersion. Results reveal that as the population increases and land values rise, built-up areas increase significantly from 29.37 per cent in 2003 to 34.10 per cent in 2023, accompanied by a sharp decline in agricultural land and vegetation. The core areas of Panjim exhibited optimal land utilization, while peripheral areas such as Bambolim and Chimbel witnessed rapid real estate growth, indicating decentralization. Demographic estimates show a 43 per cent rise in population from 2011 to 2025, with proportionate land value escalation, particularly in outgrowths due to rising demand. The study reveals interconnections among urban expansion, demographic change, and rising land values, highlighting the reshaping of the city and underscoring the urgent need for integrated urban policies that balance infrastructural growth with ecological sustainability.

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Keywords: Urban Sprawl, land value, spatial expansion, demographics, matrix

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