BibTex Citation Data :
@article{Medstat36501, author = {Mutik Alawiyah and Dianne Kusuma and Budi Ruchjana}, title = {GSTARI-ARCH MODEL AND APPLICATION ON POSITIVE CONFIRMED DATA FOR COVID-19 IN WEST JAVA}, journal = {MEDIA STATISTIKA}, volume = {14}, number = {2}, year = {2022}, keywords = {ARCH; GSTARI; Positive Covid-19 Confirmed Cases; RMSE}, abstract = { Time series model that is commonly used is the Box-Jenkins based time series model. Time series data phenomena based on Box-Jenkins can be combined with spatial data, it is called the space time model One model based on Box-Jenkins model with heterogeneous location characteristics is the Generalized Space Time Autoregressive Integrated (GSTARI) model for a model that assumes data is not stationary or has a trend. This paper discusses the development of the GSTARI model with the assumption that the error variance is not constant which is applied to positive data confirmed by Covid-19 in West Java Province, especially in 4 regencies/cities that have cases in the high category from 6 March 2020 until 31 December 2020. Four regencies/cities are Depok City, Bekasi City, Bekasi Regency, and Karawang Regency. Parameter estimation method for the assumption of non-constant error variance can use Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH) method. GSTARI-ARCH modeling procedure followed three Box-Jenkins stages, namely the identification process, parameter estimation and checking diagnostic. Application of the GSTARI-ARCH Model to Covid-19 positive confirmed data in 4 regencies/cities has a minimum value of RMSE in Bekasi City. The plot of forecast results for the four regencies/cities has a similar pattern to the actual data only applicable for a short time for 1-2 days. }, issn = {2477-0647}, pages = {146--157} doi = {10.14710/medstat.14.2.146-157}, url = {https://ejournal.undip.ac.id/index.php/media_statistika/article/view/36501} }
Refworks Citation Data :
Time series model that is commonly used is the Box-Jenkins based time series model. Time series data phenomena based on Box-Jenkins can be combined with spatial data, it is called the space time model One model based on Box-Jenkins model with heterogeneous location characteristics is the Generalized Space Time Autoregressive Integrated (GSTARI) model for a model that assumes data is not stationary or has a trend. This paper discusses the development of the GSTARI model with the assumption that the error variance is not constant which is applied to positive data confirmed by Covid-19 in West Java Province, especially in 4 regencies/cities that have cases in the high category from 6 March 2020 until 31 December 2020. Four regencies/cities are Depok City, Bekasi City, Bekasi Regency, and Karawang Regency. Parameter estimation method for the assumption of non-constant error variance can use Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH) method. GSTARI-ARCH modeling procedure followed three Box-Jenkins stages, namely the identification process, parameter estimation and checking diagnostic. Application of the GSTARI-ARCH Model to Covid-19 positive confirmed data in 4 regencies/cities has a minimum value of RMSE in Bekasi City. The plot of forecast results for the four regencies/cities has a similar pattern to the actual data only applicable for a short time for 1-2 days.
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