Hotspot Distribution Analysis as Forest and Land Fire Indicators in the New National Capital City (IKN)

East Kalimantan Province is planned as the new national capital city (IKN). Forest and land fires occur regularly every year and their frequency is increasing, especially during the dry season. This research uses secondary data, namely hotspot data. Hotspot data was obtained from the results of the 2012-2022 S-NPP VIIRS image recording. Data analysis in this study used descriptive and statistical analysis. The results of processing and analysis of the distribution of hotspots are overlaid with administrative maps so that the distribution of hotspots in each district in the study area can be identified. The results of the study show that hotspots distribution from the 2012-2022 S-NPP VIIRS image recording in East Kalimantan Province is varies quite a bit in each district. The highest hotspots distribution is in Kutai Kartanegara Regency and the lowest is in Mahakam Ulu and Penajam Paser Utara Regency. The higher number of hotspots is the higher incidence for forest and land fires. The distribution of hotspots needs to be known because it can be a form of early detection and fire mitigation so that the negative impact of fires can be minimized.


Introduction
Fires are disasters and serious problems that routinely occur every year in various countries including Indonesia (Kumalawati et al, 2018& Kumalawati et al, 2023).Fires in Indonesia also occur frequently in Kalimantan including East Kalimantan especially every dry season (Bowen et al, 2001;Wibowo, 2019).Fires increase every dry season and with land clearing (Kumalawati et al, 2023;Sastry, 2002;Stole, 2003) and forests burning (Kumalawati et al, 2020).The impact of forest and land fires is quite numerous and very detrimental because it can cause damage to the environment and ecosystem and affect social, economic, transportation, and health conditions (L.Tacconi, 2016;AJ Wulan et al, 2016;R.Ajin et al, 2016;Ikhwan, 2016;RP Nugraha et al, 2019;Rozi et al 2020;AA Fitriani et al, 2021).
Forest and land fires can be identified by looking at the distribution of hotspots (Saharjo et al, 2021).Hotspots are obtained from recording SNPP VIIRS satellite images as an approach for early detection of fires, where the greater the number of hotspots, the greater the potential for fire (Kumalawati et al, 2021).Forest and land fire detection is a very important solution to prevent and control fires (Trestiyan et al, 2022) .Fire detection in addition to looking at the number of hotspots also by looking at the level of hotspot confidence and hotspot temperature provisions of ≥330°K or ≥ 56.85°C for hotspots recorded by MODIS images (Giglio et al, 2003).
Kalimantan Island is one of places which forest and land fires happen every year due to the large amount of oil palm and peatland that causes fires on Kalimantan Island.In research that has been conducted in South Kalimantan Province from 2012 to 2022, there have been forest and land fires The number of hotspots from 2012-2021 goes up and down every year, sometimes up and sometimes down, the decrease that occurs is caused by many factors such as weather factors or rainfall (Kumalawati et al, 2021).The highest hotspot in 2015.East Kalimantan Province as the new national capital city, requires analysis of the spatial distribution of hotspots in order to carry out preventive management of forest and land fires.
The environmental issue is one of the reasons why the new capital city has been moved to East Kalimantan Province, such as earth quake, over population and fresh water vulnerability.But, according to the results of the above presentation, Kalimantan Island is a subscription to land fires almost every year.The government itself has determined that development in IKN must have the concept of a forest city.Forest City is development dimension that pays attention to the environmental side in social, economic, and cultural fields.Assessing the potential disaster is one approach that can realize forest city because each area will be developed based on the function or potential it already has.Therefore, it is very necessary to conduct research related to fire hotspot The purpose of the study was to determine and analyze the distribution of hotspots as an indicator of the incidence of forest and land fires in the location of the new national capital.The distribution of hotspots is known to be an indicator of the occurrence of forest and land fires so that negative impacts can be minimized due to fires.

Literature Review
Forest and land fires in Indonesia are a serious concern in the world, both domestically, nationally, and internationally because they have a considerable negative impact (Kumalwati et al, 2023;Maranatha et al, 2020;Marlina et al, 2020;Nisa, 2020;Wibowo et al, 2021).Fires are inappropriately caused by land clearing, namely by burning forests and land causing disasters (Utami et al, 2017).Forest and land fires greatly affect various sectors, both problems, transportation barriers, ecological damage, and economic decline (Marlina et al, 2020;Edi et al,2020;Uddin et al, 2021).
Forest and land fires in Indonesia are regional and global disasters, these disasters occur almost every year in East Kalimantan Province (Syarifa et al, 2020).East Kalimantan Province is the construction site of the new state capital.The location of the new state capital has a high potential for forest and land fires so it needs serious attention.Forest and land fires are natural disasters (Wibowo et al, 2020), which often occur every dry season (Yusuf et al, 2019;Saputro et al, 2021;Dicelebica et al, 2020) and are the cause of the annual environmental crisis (Karo,2020).Forest and land fires are also an annual problem and disaster because they occur annually (Aldi,2021;Goma et al, 2020).Forest and land fires occur due to 2 (two) main factors, namely natural factors (El-Nino which causes long droughts) and uncontrolled human activity factors (land clearing by burning) (Rosalina et al, 2019;Agustiar et al, 2020;Ardiansah et al, 2020;Almegi et al, 2022).
Forest and land fires can be detected from the number of hotspots and confidence levels (Indradjad et al, 209;Aflahah et al, 2019).The number of hotspots and high confidence levels can be indicators of fire events so as early detection.Early detection in efforts to prevent and control forest and land fires can be known through hotspot distribution information obtained from remote sensing data in the form of satellite data (Almegi et al, 2022;Nata, 2020;Imansyah, 2021).Satellite images that record hotspots used in research are S-NPP VIIRS (Indradjad et al, 2019;Purbahapsari et al 2022).Hotspots in large numbers and ongoing continuously are indicators to detect forest and land fires (Adam, 2020;Fitria, 2023;Jihar et al, 2023) (see Figure 1).Early detection of forest and land fires is urgently needed to minimize the greater negative impacts resulting from fires.VIIRS stands for Visible and Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite.VIIRS is one of the sensors carried by the Suomi-NPP (National Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System Preparatory Project) which was launched on October 28, 2011.The VIIRS sensor consists of over sixteen channels of moderate resolution (M-Bands) ranging from M1 to M16, one channel Day/Night Band (DNB), and five high-resolution imagery channels (I-Bands) namely I1 to I5.The VIIRS sensor has similarities with previous satellites, such as VHRR, OLS, MODIS, SeaWiFS.The VIIRS sensor consists of 22 channels with a spectral band coverage of 412 nm up to 12 μm, imagery channels with a nadir resolution of approx.375 meters in five channels.The coverage area of one image is 3000 km, with spatial resolution: 370/740 m.Information regarding the technical characteristics of the VIIRS sensor which consists of bandwidth, reflected r, age, and band explanation is shown in Table 1.In addition to VIIRS imagery, several imageries have been used to detect the distribution of forest and land fires or hotspots including TERRA, and AQUA with MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) sensors.Hotspots are obtained from MODIS data using global algorithms developed by NASA and software implementations using software developed by Wisconsin University.The fire detection method from MODIS data, both TERRA and AQUA, produces more value than data derived from NOAA satellites, while as validation for low-resolution data (limitation of band or pixel size in imagery), it can also use Landsat 8 data with OLI data (Muhammad and Riki, 2022).Hotspot information from MODIS and VIIRS satellite data can detect forest fires in 49% of events with a confidence level of 30% to 80% (Andy et al, 2019)

Method
The research was conducted in East Kalimantan Province, which is the location of the new state capital.The study population was all districts in East Kalimantan that found hotspots.The number of populations is equal to the number of samples.The study used secondary data, namely hotspot data from the results of VIIRS S-NPP image recording for 2012-2022 at high, medium, and low confidence levels.Hotspot data is processed and analyzed using a Geographic Information System (GIS using Arc-GIS software), while Microsoft Office is for tabulation and graphic processing (Saharjo et al, 2021;Trestiyan et al, 2020;Rosalina et all, 2021).This research use descriptive analysis and statistical analysis as we as spatial analysis (Saharjo et al, 2021, Rosalina et all, 2021;Sari et al, 2020;Arisman, 2020)].Descriptive statistics is a statistical analysis that provides a general picture of the characteristics of each research variant (Rosalina et all, 2021).The results of processing and analyzing the distribution of hotspots are overlaid with administrative maps so that the distribution of hotspots in each district in the research area can be known.Areas with a high number of hotspots are indicators of high incidence and land fires in these areas (see Figure 2).In determining the high, medium and low level categories of forest and land fires used the formula:

Result dan Discussion
Fires can be detected early through the number of hotspots available.The greater the number of hotspots, the higher and greater the potential for fire.The results of the study can be known the number of hotspots recorded from the S-NPP VIIRS Satellite Image from 2012-2021 at the National Capital Location (IKN) of the archipelago as many as 266.627 points.The number of hotspots in a year occurred in 2015 when there was an El-Nino phenomenon which caused the duration of the dry season to be longer than usual (8 until 10 months) with the number of hotspots reaching 56.539 points.
The hotspot data collection in this study is hotspot data from the results of recording VIIRS S-NPP satellite images for 2012-2022.Hotspots won't provide much information if they don't do advanced interpretation and analysis.Further analysis is needed to determine the potential emergence of hotspots in each region as an effort to mitigate land fires (Simanjuntak et al, 2020).Existing hotspots are processed and analyzed so that the distribution of hotspots in each area can be known.The results of hotspot processing at the location of the new national capital, namely in East Kalimantan Province, vary quite a bit at each Regency / City and District level from 2012-2022.The year 2022 was not found hotspots until May.The distribution of hotspots in 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, and 2019was highest in Kutai Kartanegara Regency. In 2016, 2017, 2018, 2020 and 2021 the highest in East Kutai Regency where in 2019 the highest Kutai Kartanegara Regency.The distribution of hotspots was highest in 2015 due to the influence of El-Nino which caused a long drought (Aisyah et al, 2021), where the highest distribution of hotspots in 2015 was also in Kutai Kartanegara Regency.
Hotspot data obtained from satellite imagery needs to be interpreted to be used as a determinant of land fire disaster prevention and mitigation policies (Harsoyo et al, 2022).Further analysis is also needed as an effort to prevent and mitigate land fire disasters by triggering potential fire points in vulnerable areas (Kumalawati et al, 2019).The highest distribution of hotspots in the 2012-2022 range is in Kutai Kartanegara Regency followed by East Kutai, Paser, Berau, and West Kutai Regencies.The country has a hotspot count above twenty thousand.As the core zone of IKN development, Kutai Kartanegara Regency has the highest distribution and number of hotspots among other districts, so it needs serious attention.
Details of hotspot distribution variations in 2012-2022where in 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, and 2019 Kutai Kartanegara Regency has the highest number of hotspot distribution compared to other districts.While in 2016While in , 2017While in , 2018While in , 2020 and 2021 the highest distribution of hotspots was in East Kutai Regency.The year 2022 was not found hotspots until May.The highest number of hotspots was in 2015 due to the influence of El-Nino which caused a long drought (Harsoyo et al, 2022), where the highest distribution of hotspots in 2015 was also in Kutai Kartanegara Regency.The distribution and number of hotspots are indicators of potential land fires (Kumalawati et al, 2021).Therefore, districts that have a high distribution and number of hotspots need preventive efforts in the form of appropriate and fast mitigation to minimize negative impacts and minimize the number of victims and property.Information on the distribution of hotspots in each region is crucial to be acquired and is known as an effort to mitigate and prevent forest and land fires.
The overall distribution of hotspots from 2012-2022 both in each Regency / City and the highest sub-district level is in Kutai Kartanegara Regency followed by East Kutai, Paser, Berau, and West Kutai Regencies (see Figure 3 and Table 2).The district has a high number of hotspots that are above twenty thousand.Kutai Kartanegara Regency is one of the districts that has the highest distribution and number of hotspots where the patent is the core location of IKN development so it needs serious attention.Districts with a high distribution and number of hotspots, the area is predicted to have a high potential for fire incidence (Adam, 2020;Harsoyo et al, 2022).Districts with high fire potential need appropriate and fast mitigation to minimize the negative impact of fires and minimize casualties as well as property.Seeing this, it is very necessary to note the distribution of hotspots in each region because it can be used as an indicator of the occurrence of forest and land fires.As we know, the more the number of hotspots with high accuracy, the higher the attention to fire.Spatial analysis is the analysis needed to describe the distribution of areas affected by hotspots in the new national capital.Therefore, the distribution of hotspots is carried out by categorizing the levels described in the equation formula (1) to ( 4).So that we can write down low level has values from 599 hotspots until 12.698 hotspots, medium level has values from 12.699 hotspots until 13.297 hotspots and high level has more that 13.297 hotspots.Figure 4 shows that Kutai kartanegara Regency and East Kutai Regency have the highest incidence of forest and land fire compared to other regions.According to Rosalina et al, 2019, forest and land fires can experience extensive area expansion due to wind as a medium for spreading forest fires, so that is why Kutai kartanegara and East Kutai Regencies have a high number of hotspots distribution due to the expansion of fire areas.The distribution of hotspots at the medium level occurs at the intersection of high-level areas, namely in the north and south (figure 4).This indicates a decrease in the incidence of fires in West Kutai, Berau and Paser regencies, which are areas with a moderate number of hotspots.Unlike the case with urban areas, it shows a low level for the distribution of hotspots, namely in the cities of Balikpapan, Samarinda City and Bontang City.However, North Penajam Paser and Mahakam Ulu regencies, which are not urban areas, have a low level of hotspot distribution.

Conclusion
The highest distribution of hotspots from the results of recording S-NPP VIIRS satellite images at the location of the New State Capital is in Kutai Kartanegara Regency which is the core location of IKN.The distribution of hotspots can be an indicator of forest and land fires at the IKN location, so Kutai Kartanegara Regency needs intensive attention.The distribution of hotspots needs to be known because it can be a form of early detection and fire mitigation so that the negative impact of fires can be minimized.

Figure 1 .
Figure 1.Hotspot distribution analysis as forest and land fire indicators in the new national capital city (IKN)

Figure 3 .
Figure 3. Number of hotspots distribution from viirs s-npp image recording in 2012-2022 in the location of the new national capital

Figure 4 .
Figure 4. Map of hotspot distribution from s-npp viirs image

Table 1 .
Band and reflected range VIIRS

Table 2 .
Number of Hotspot Distribution from VIIRS S-NPP Image Recording Year 2012-2022 in Each District in the Location of the New National Capital

Table 3 .
Total distribution of hotspots in the new national capital