The Impact and Prediction of Shoreline Dynamics in Pekalongan, Indonesia

Abstract

Shoreline in Pekalongan has changed and impacted land use significantly. This research investigates historical changes in shoreline dynamics and their impact on land use from 2003–2021. This research also examines the trend of shoreline prediction for 2031–2041. Multitemporal SPOT5 and SPOT6 satellite images were used as primer data to detect shoreline and land use changes. The DSAS (Digital Shoreline Analysis System)  analyzes the shoreline change and generates shoreline prediction. This research shows that the coastal areas of Pekalongan have been impacted by erosion, with 528.08 hectares of area and 56.33 hectares of accretion. The North Pekalongan sub-district is the worst area hit by erosion. The shoreline has retreated 2405.8 meters with a 353.3 m/year erosion rate. Several areas of land use were heavily affected by erosion trends, such as ponds, rice fields, and open land. Shoreline predictions generated by DSAS were heavily reliant on historical rates of shoreline change dynamics. The predicted area of the shoreline is estimated to retreat 49.9–466.2 meters from the existing position in the next 10 and 20 years. This research is expected to provide information to local governments for evaluating the maintenance and development planning of the coastal area