Department of Economics and Development Studies, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Diponegoro, Semarang, Indonesia
BibTex Citation Data :
@article{JDEP86891, author = {Gianti Nawangsari and Alfa Farah}, title = {Incumbency and Electoral Competition: Evidence from the 2024 Indonesian Mayoral Elections}, journal = {Jurnal Dinamika Ekonomi Pembangunan}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, year = {2026}, keywords = {Accountability; Incumbent Advantage; Electoral Competition; Local Election; Indonesia}, abstract = { Electoral competition is essential for democratic accountability. However, the presence of incumbent candidates may weaken electoral competition by discouraging challenger entry. This paper compares districts with and without incumbent candidates in terms of electoral competition during the 2024 Indonesian Mayoral Elections. This paper measures electoral competition using four indicators: the number of candidates, the winner’s vote share, the winning margin, and the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI). Employing Welch’s t-tests, the results show that districts with an incumbent candidate have fewer candidates, higher winner vote shares, larger winning margins, and more concentrated votes. These patterns are consistent with the scare-off hypothesis. Nevertheless, the descriptive design does not establish that causal relationship. The results offer a baseline for future research on how incumbency affects challenger entry. }, issn = {2620-3049}, pages = {19--28} doi = {10.14710/jdep.9.1.19-28}, url = {https://ejournal.undip.ac.id/index.php/dinamika_pembangunan/article/view/86891} }
Refworks Citation Data :
Electoral competition is essential for democratic accountability. However, the presence of incumbent candidates may weaken electoral competition by discouraging challenger entry. This paper compares districts with and without incumbent candidates in terms of electoral competition during the 2024 Indonesian Mayoral Elections. This paper measures electoral competition using four indicators: the number of candidates, the winner’s vote share, the winning margin, and the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI). Employing Welch’s t-tests, the results show that districts with an incumbent candidate have fewer candidates, higher winner vote shares, larger winning margins, and more concentrated votes. These patterns are consistent with the scare-off hypothesis. Nevertheless, the descriptive design does not establish that causal relationship. The results offer a baseline for future research on how incumbency affects challenger entry.
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Last update: 2026-10-09 17:32:03
