DOI: https://doi.org/10.14710/pwk.v22i2.79177

Analisis Tren Spasial-Temporal Area Terbangun di Kota Palu Tahun (1975-2020)

*Yunifar Susanto D. Madusila orcid  -  Universitas Gadjah Mada, Indonesia
Iwan Alim Saputra orcid  -  Universitas Tadulako, Indonesia
Rendra Zainal Maliki orcid  -  Universitas Tadulako, Indonesia

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Abstract

Perkembangan pada kawasan perkotaan mengalami peningkatan pesat terutama di negara berkembang, seperti Indonesia, yang telah mendorong perluasan dari area terbangun secara signifikan. Faktor utamanya didorong oleh peningkatan jumlah penduduk yang menyebabkan permintaan lahan terbangun meningkat, keterbatasan lahan di pusat kota memicu ekspansi ke pinggiran wilayah kota, dan mengorbankan ruang hijau dan lahan produktif. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis dari dinamika perubahan area terbangun di Kota Palu berbasis spasial-temporal dari tahun 1975 sampai 2020, menghitung laju pertumbuhan, dan mengevaluasi tren pertumbuhan berbasis analisis regresi linear. Data yang digunakan berasal dari dataset GHSL: Build-up-Surface 1975-2030 (P2023A) dengan resolusi spasial 100 m. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan adanya peningkatan luas area terbangun yang konsisten dari 83,51 km2 pada tahun 1975 yang kemudian menjadi 109,73km2 pada tahun 2020, dengan Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) 0,61% per tahun yang termasuk dalam kategori moderat. Pertumbuhan tertinggi pada awal periode 1985-1990 diduga berkaitan dengan program transmigrasi nasional pada era pemerintahan saat itu, dan pertumbuhan melambat pada periode 2015-2020 yang diakibatkan oleh bencana gempa bumi dan pandemi Covid-19. Model regresi menunjukkan tren pertumbuhan linear dengan koefisien 0,089 km2/tahun dan nilai R2 sebesar 0,8977, serta memproyeksikan luas area terbangun sampai tahun 2050 mencapai 128 km2. Temuan tersebut menunjukkan pentingnya kebijakan tata ruang yang berkelanjutan dan adaptif untuk mengelola ekspansi perkotaan, terutama pada wilayah yang memiliki keterbatasan fisik seperti Kota Palu, serta menjaga keseimbangan antara pembangunan dan lingkungan perkotaan.

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Keywords: Analisis spasial-temporal, Area terbangun, Perluasan kawasan terbangun, Dataset GHSL, Kota Palu

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