Analisa Perdagangan Bilateral Indonesia dengan  Pendekatan Marshall Lerner Condition dan Fenomena J Curve

Erric Wijaya

doi:10.14710/jdep.3.3.187-201

DOI: https://doi.org/10.14710/jdep.3.3.187-201

Analisa Perdagangan Bilateral Indonesia dengan Pendekatan Marshall Lerner Condition dan Fenomena J Curve

Erric Wijaya

Program Studi Manajemen Indonesia Banking School, Indonesia

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Abstract

Penelitian ini membahas mengenai analisa perdagangan bilateral Indonesia dengan menggunakan fenomena J curve dan Marshall Lerner Condition. Sampel penelitian ini menggunakan tiga negara mitra dagang terbesar Indonesia yaitu Tiongkok, Jepang, dan Singapura. Periode penelitian dari tahun 2010 kuartal 1 sampai dengan 2017 kuartal 4. Alat analisis menggunakan regresi linear berganda dengan menggunakan pendekatan kointegrasi dan Error Correction Model (ECM). Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa tidak terjadi fenomena J curve dan Marshall Lerner Condition untuk perdagangan bilateral antara Indonesia dengan Tiongkok dan Indonesia dengan Jepang. Sedangkan perdagangan bilateral antara Indonesia dan Singapura terjadi fenomena J curve dan Marshall Lerner Condition. Masing-masing variabel penelitian saling terkointegrasi pada jangka panjang dan juga pada jangka pendek melalui Error Correction Model (ECM). Pada jangka pendek perubahan nilai tukar tidak mempengaruhi perdagangan bilateral Indonesia dengan Jepang dan Singapura., tetapi berpengaruh pada perdagangan bilateral Indonesia dengan Tiongkok. Pada jangka panjang, perubahan nilai tukar berpengaruh pada perdagangan bilateral Indonesia dengan Tiongkok dan Singapura.

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Keywords: J curve; Marshall Lerner Condition

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Section: Research Article

Language : ID

In Vol 3, No 3: Desember 2020

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