Pengaruh Ekspor Minyak Kelapa Sawit, Impor Kedelai, Utang Luar Negeri, dan Nilai Tukar Terhadap Cadangan Devisa Indonesia

Abstract

This research was conducted in Indonesia, and aims to analyze the effect of palm oil exports, soybean imports, foreign debt, and exchange rates on Indonesia's foreign exchange reserves. The data used in this study is 31 years of time series data from 1990 to 2021, obtained from Food and Agriculture, World Bank and Bank Indonesia. The data was then analyzed using an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. The results of this study show that palm oil export variables in the short and long term have a positive and significant effect on foreign exchange reserves, soybean import variables in the short and long term have a negative and significant effect on foreign exchange reserves. In the short and long term the variable foreign debt has a negative and significant effect on foreign exchange reserves, the variable exchange rate (exchange rate) in the short term has a negative and significant effect on foreign exchange reserves, the variable exchange rate (exchange rate) in the long run has a positive and insignificant effect on foreign exchange reserves. Based on the results of the study, it is recommended that the government support increasing palm oil exports, as well as reducing soybean imports and be more objective in the use of more productive foreign debt.