Pengaruh Ekspor Minyak Kelapa Sawit, Impor Kedelai, Utang Luar Negeri, dan Nilai Tukar terhadap Cadangan Devisa Indonesia

Abstract

This research aims to analyze the effect of palm oil exports, soybean imports, foreign debt, and exchange rates on Indonesia's foreign exchange reserves. This study used 31 years of time series data from 1990 to 2021, obtained from the Food and Agriculture Organization, the World Bank, and Bank Indonesia. The data were analyzed using an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. The results of this study show that palm oil exports in the short and long run have a positive and significant effect on foreign exchange reserves, and soybean imports in the short and long run have a negative and significant effect on foreign exchange reserves. In the short and long run, foreign debt has a negative and significant effect on foreign exchange reserves. The exchange rate in the short run has a negative and significant effect on foreign exchange reserves; the variable exchange rate in the long run has a positive and insignificant effect on foreign exchange reserves. Based on the results of the study, it is recommended that the government support increasing palm oil exports, as well as reducing soybean imports, and be more objective in the use of more productive foreign debt.