DOI: https://doi.org/10.14710/jil.24.2.328-340

Transformasi Ruang dan Lingkungan: Prediksi Tutupan Lahan di Kawasan Urban Kota Palangka Raya

1Universitas Palangka Raya, Jl.Yos Sudarso, Palangka Raya, Indonesia, Indonesia

2Magister Perencanaan Wilayah dan Kota, Universitas Palangka Raya, Indonesia

3Jurusan Kehutanan, Universitas Palangka Raya, Indonesia, Indonesia

4 Pusat Pengembangan Infrastruktur Data Spasial, Universitas Lambung Mangkurat,, Indonesia

5 Dinas Pekerjaan Umum dan Penataan Ruang, Kabupaten Pulang Pisau, Indonesia

6 KPH Kotawaringin Barat, Dinas Kehutanan, Provinsi Kalimantan Tengah, Indonesia

View all affiliations
Received: 15 May 2025; Revised: 6 Jun 2026; Accepted: 25 Jun 2026; Available online: 16 Jul 2026; Published: 18 Jul 2026.
Editor(s): Budi Warsito

Citation Format:
Abstract

Perubahan tutupan lahan akibat urbanisasi merupakan tantangan utama dalam pengelolaan lingkungan perkotaan karena berpotensi menurunkan kualitas ekosistem dan meningkatkan tekanan terhadap sumber daya alam. Penelitian ini bertujuan menganalisis perubahan tutupan lahan periode 2017–2024 serta memprediksi kondisi tutupan lahan tahun 2031 di Kecamatan Pahandut, Kota Palangka Raya. Kebaruan penelitian ini terletak pada pemanfaatan citra resolusi tinggi Planet Labs yang dikombinasikan dengan model prediksi spasial MOLUSCE (Modules for Land Use Change Evaluation) untuk mendukung perencanaan tata ruang berbasis data spasial pada kawasan urban yang berkembang pesat. Prediksi dilakukan menggunakan pendekatan Markov Chain dan Cellular Automata (CA) dengan mempertimbangkan faktor pendorong perubahan lahan berupa topografi, jaringan jalan, sungai, pusat pemerintahan, dan sebaran bangunan. Hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa selama periode 2017–2024 terjadi peningkatan luas hutan dan lahan terbangun, sementara lahan semak, lahan terbuka, dan badan air mengalami penurunan. Prediksi tahun 2031 mengindikasikan berlanjutnya ekspansi kawasan terbangun yang berpotensi meningkatkan tekanan terhadap kawasan hutan, lahan terbuka, dan ekosistem perairan. Hasil validasi menunjukkan bahwa model memiliki tingkat akurasi yang baik dengan nilai overall correctness sebesar 82,97% dan Kappa Overall sebesar 0,74841, sehingga mampu merepresentasikan dinamika perubahan tutupan lahan secara kuantitatif maupun spasial. Temuan penelitian menegaskan pentingnya pengendalian urbanisasi, perlindungan kawasan hijau, dan konservasi sumber daya air dalam mendukung pembangunan perkotaan yang berkelanjutan. Informasi spasial prediktif yang dihasilkan dapat menjadi dasar dalam penyusunan kebijakan tata ruang dan pengelolaan lingkungan di Kota Palangka Raya.

Fulltext View|Download Email colleagues
Keywords: Prediksi Tutupan Lahan; Urbanisasi Spasial; Tata Ruang Adaptif; Alih Fungsi Lahan; Tata Guna Lahan Berkelanjutan

Article Metrics:

Article Info
Section: Research Article
Language : ID
Most cited articles
PENGELOLAAN AIR TANAH BERBASIS KONSERVASI DI RECHARGE AREA BOYOLALI (Studi Kasus Recharge Area Cepogo, Boyolali, Jawa Tengah) KAJIAN DAMPAK KERUSAKAN LINGKUNGAN AKIBAT KEGIATAN PENAMBANGAN PASIR DI DESA KENINGAR DAERAH KAWASAN GUNUNG MERAPI POTENSI GLISEROL DALAM PEMBUATAN TURUNAN GLISEROL MELALUI PROSES ESTERIFIKASI PENGARUH FAKTOR-FAKTOR SOSIAL-EKONOMI TERHADAP PERILAKU PENGELOLAAN SAMPAH DOMESTIK DI NUSA TENGGARA TIMUR HUBUNGAN PENGETAHUAN DAN ETIKA LINGKUNGAN DENGAN SIKAP DAN PERILAKU MENJAGA KELESTARIAN LINGKUNGAN More cited articles
  1. Acuña-Alonso, C., Novo, A., Rodríguez, J.L., Varandas, S., Álvarez, X., 2022. Modelling and evaluation of land use changes through satellite images in a multifunctional catchment: Social, economic and environmental implications. Ecol. Inform. 71. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecoinf.2022.101777
  2. Afentina, McShane, P., Wright, W., 2020. Ethnobotany, rattan agroforestry, and conservation of ecosystem services in Central Kalimantan, Indonesia. Agrofor. Syst. 94, 639–650. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10457-019-00428-x
  3. Amgoth, A., Rani, H.P., Jayakumar, K. V., 2023. Exploring LULC changes in Pakhal Lake area, Telangana, India using QGIS MOLUSCE plugin. Spat. Inf. Res. 31, 429–438. https://doi.org/10.1007/s41324-023-00509-1
  4. Arsanjani, J.J., Helbich, M., Kainz, W., Boloorani, A.D., 2013. Integration of logistic regression, Markov chain and cellular automata models to simulate urban expansion. Int. J. Appl. Earth Obs. Geoinf. 21, 265–275. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jag.2011.12.014
  5. Baghel, S., Kothari, M.K., Tripathi, M.P., Singh, P.K., Bhakar, S.R., Dave, V., Jain, S.K., 2024. Spatiotemporal LULC change detection and future prediction for the Mand catchment using MOLUSCE tool. Environ. Earth Sci. 83. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-023-11381-5
  6. Biernacka, M., Kronenberg, J., Łaszkiewicz, E., Czembrowski, P., Amini Parsa, V., Sikorska, D., 2023. Beyond urban parks: Mapping informal green spaces in an urban–peri-urban gradient. Land use policy 131. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2023.106746
  7. Bramantio, B., Hizbaron, D.R., Khakhim, N., 2024. Prediction of the future landuse and land cover changes in the Parangtritis sand dune : a spatio temporal analysis using QGIS MOLUSCE. IOP Conf. Ser. Earth Environ. Sci. https://doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/1313/1/012014
  8. Budi, M., Akhyar, 2021. Green open space detection and mapping using planetscope-3a image with vegetation index approach and supervised classification in Banda Aceh, Indonesia. Forum Geogr. 20, 145–159. https://doi.org/10.5775/fg.2021.034.d
  9. da Silva, V.S., Salami, G., da Silva, M.I.O., Silva, E.A., Monteiro Junior, J.J., Alba, E., 2020. Methodological evaluation of vegetation indexes in land use and land cover (LULC) classification. Geol. Ecol. Landscapes 4, 159–169. https://doi.org/10.1080/24749508.2019.1608409
  10. Dewa, D.D., Buchori, I., 2023. Impacts of rapid urbanization on spatial dynamics of land use–based carbon emission and surface temperature changes in the Semarang Metropolitan Region, Indonesia. Environ. Monit. Assess. 195. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-022-10839-6
  11. Erman, E., Hamrizan, H., 2015. Upaya Preventif Pemerintahan Kabupaten Rokan Hilir dalam Menangani Kebakaran Hutan dan Lahan pada Tahun 2012-2013. neliti.com
  12. Fetene, D.T., Lohani, T.K., Mohammed, A.K., 2023. LULC change detection using support vector machines and cellular automata-based ANN models in Guna Tana watershed of Abay basin, Ethiopia. Environ. Monit. Assess. 195. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-023-11968-2
  13. Frazier, A.E., Hemingway, B.L., 2021. A technical review of planet smallsat data: Practical considerations for processing and using planetscope imagery. Remote Sens. 13. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs13193930
  14. Gala, T., Boakye, L., 2020. Spatiotemporal analysis of remotely sensed Landsat time series data for monitoring 32 years of urbanization. Int. J. Hum. Cap. Urban Manag. 5, 85–98. https://doi.org/10.22034/IJHCUM.2020.02.01
  15. Handayani, W., Chigbu, U.E., Rudiarto, I., Surya Putri, I.H., 2020. Urbanization and increasing flood risk in the Northern Coast of Central Java-Indonesia: An assessment towards better land use policy and flood management. Land 9. https://doi.org/10.3390/LAND9100343
  16. Huang, L., Liao, F.H., Lohse, K.A., Larson, D.M., Fragkias, M., Lybecker, D.L., Baxter, C. V., 2019. Land conservation can mitigate freshwater ecosystem services degradation due to climate change in a semiarid catchment: The case of the Portneuf River catchment, Idaho, USA. Sci. Total Environ. 651, 1796–1809. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.09.260
  17. Ibárcena, V., 2023. Impacts of urban sprawl on the ecological connectivity of landscapes in the Chili River, Arequipa - Peru. ZEMCH Int. Conf
  18. Iskandar, B., Saidah, Kurnia, A.A., Jauhari, A., Zannah, F., 2024. Modeling Land Cover Change Using MOLUSCE in Kahayan Tengah Forest Management Unit, Kalimantan Tengah. J. Sylva Lestari 12, 242–257. https://doi.org/10.23960/jsl.v12i2.865
  19. Jaroszewicz, J., Denis, M., Fijałkowska, A., Graszka, O., Pluto-Kossakowska, J., Krzysztofowicz, S., 2023. Spatially explicit mixed-use indicators to measure life quality across the city — A conceptual framework and case study: Piaseczno — A medium sized city in the peri-urban zone of Warsaw, Poland. Cities 137. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cities.2023.104296
  20. Jia, J.S., Lu, X., Yuan, Y., Xu, G., Jia, J., Christakis, N.A., 2020. Population flow drives spatio-temporal distribution of COVID-19 in China. Nature 582, 389–394. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-020-2284-y
  21. Larasati, B., Kanzaki, M., Purwanto, R.H., Sadono, R., 2019. Fire Regime in a Peatland Restoration Area: Lesson from Central Kalimantan. J. Ilmu Kehutan. 13, 210. https://doi.org/10.22146/jik.52436
  22. Lin, C.Y., Shieh, P.Y., Wu, S.W., Wang, P.C., Chen, Y.C., 2022. Environmental indicators combined with risk analysis to evaluate potential wildfire incidence on the Dadu Plateau in Taiwan. Nat. Hazards 113, 287–313. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-022-05300-3
  23. Liu, S., Yu, Q., Wei, C., 2019. Spatial-temporal dynamic analysis of land use and landscape pattern in Guangzhou, China: Exploring the driving forces from an urban sustainability perspective. Sustain. https://doi.org/10.3390/su11236675
  24. Lukas, P., Melesse, A.M., Kenea, T.T., 2023. Prediction of Future Land Use/Land Cover Changes Using a Coupled CA-ANN Model in the Upper Omo–Gibe River Basin, Ethiopia. Remote Sens. 15. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs15041148
  25. Nyamekye, C., Kwofie, S., Agyapong, E., Ofosu, S.A., Arthur, R., Appiah, L.B., 2021. Integrating support vector machine and cellular automata for modelling land cover change in the tropical rainforest under equatorial climate in Ghana. Curr. Res. Environ. Sustain. 3. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crsust.2021.100052
  26. Paul, R.F., Cai, Y., Peng, B., Yang, W.H., Guan, K., DeLucia, E.H., 2020. Spatiotemporal derivation of intermittent ponding in a maize-soybean landscape from planet labs cubesat images. Remote Sens. 12. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs12121942
  27. Pautz, C., Santos, A.R. dos, Ferrari, J.L., Guerra Filho, P.A., Kunz, S.H., Dias, H.M., Moreira, T.R., Carvalho, R. de C.F., Mardeni, V.D.N., Santos, E.C. dos, Marin Scaramussa, L., 2023. Mapping the Environmental Vulnerability of a Lagoon Using Fuzzy Logic and the AHP Method. Water (Switzerland) 15. https://doi.org/10.3390/w15112102
  28. Pei, N., Kress, W.J., 2020. Research in forest biology in the era of climate change and rapid urbanization. Forests 11. https://doi.org/10.3390/f11010026
  29. Permana, I., Ludang, Y., 2020. Analysis of open spaces in flood-prone areas in small-medium cities: A Case study of Palangkaraya City. IOP Conf. Ser. Earth Environ. Sci. https://doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/473/1/012145
  30. Priyadi, P., Sediyono, E., Prasetyo, S.Y.J., 2020. Penataan Ruang Kawasan Agropolitan di Kabupaten Semarang dengan Metode Artificial Neural Network. J. Transform. 17, 134. https://doi.org/10.26623/transformatika.v17i2.1615
  31. Rachmansyah, A., Halim, L.F., Soemarno, 2019. Sustainable development approach to residential planning in the rapid growth Urban area: A case study in Singosari district, Malang region, East Java province. Geogr. Tech. 14, 3–12. https://doi.org/10.21163/gt_2019.141.13
  32. Rahaman Rahat, M.A., Roy, N., Khan Manon, M.R., Ullah, M.R., Islam, M.M., Rashid, M.T., Hasan, K.R., Chakma, S., Rahman, M.A., 2022. Temporal distribution of fishery resources in Payra River: relationship with climatological changes, ecological assessment, and threat assessment. Heliyon 8, e10584. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2022.e10584
  33. Rahman, A., Tharzhiansyah, M., Rizky, M., Vita, H.S.M., 2021. Problems and urban sustainable development in wetlands based on the thermal conditions. IOP Conf. Ser. Earth Environ. Sci. https://doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/780/1/012022
  34. Ramadhan, S.A., Kurniawan, A., Yudha, I.S., Yuwono, 2021. InaCORS-BIG Service for Practice Survey. IOP Conf. Ser. Earth Environ. Sci. https://doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/936/1/012031
  35. Ramanamurthy, B. V., Vijayasaradhi, B., 2022. Morphometric Analysis of Upstream Thandava Reservoir using RS and GIS Applications. Indian J. Environ. Prot. 42, 624–630
  36. Ramdhan, M., Akhwady, R., Arifin, T., Purbani, D., Yulius, Pryambodo, D.G., Rahmania, R., Maftukhaturrizqoh, O., Asyiri, A., Hidayat, S., Ningsih, A., Sadad, 2024. Using Neural Networks for Sustainable Land Use Prediction in Sumbawa Regency, Indonesia. Appl. Environ. Res. 46. https://doi.org/10.35762/AER.2024045
  37. Raya, B.P.S.K.P., 2023. Jumlah Curah Hujan Menurut Bulan di Kota Palangka Raya (mm) [WWW Document]. URL https://palangkakota.bps.go.id/id/query-builder (accessed 5.1.25)
  38. Shiri, Z., Frija, A., Rejeb, H., Ouerghemmi, H., Le, Q.B., 2024. Data on the Land Cover Transition, Subsequent Landscape Degradation, and Improvement in Semi-Arid Rainfed Agricultural Land in North–West Tunisia. Data. https://doi.org/10.3390/data9080096
  39. Soria-Díaz, H.F., Valeriano-Quispe, V.D., Da-Fonseca, M.V., Chambi-Legoas, R., Zevallos-Pollito, P.A., Soria-Solano, B., 2024. Multitemporal analysis of deforestation in a buffer zone in the southwestern Amazonia, Peru. Madera y Bosques 30. https://doi.org/10.21829/myb.2024.3032678
  40. Spencer, K.L., Deere, N.J., Aini, M., Avriandy, R., Campbell-Smith, G., Cheyne, S.M., Gaveau, D.L.A., Humle, T., Hutabarat, J., Loken, B., Macdonald, D.W., Marshall, A.J., Morgans, C., Rayadin, Y., Sanchez, K.L., Spehar, S., Suanto, Sugardjito, J., Wittmer, H.U., Supriatna, J., Struebig, M.J., 2023. Implications of large-scale infrastructure development for biodiversity in Indonesian Borneo. Sci. Total Environ. 866, 161075. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.161075
  41. Srinivasaperumal, P., Sivakumar, V.L., 2022. Geospatial Techniques for Quantitative Analysis of Urban Expansion and the Resulting Land Use Change along the Chennai Outer Ring Road (ORR) Corridor. Proc. - 2022 4th Int. Conf. Adv. Comput. Commun. Control Networking, ICAC3N 2022. https://doi.org/10.1109/ICAC3N56670.2022.10074422
  42. Tempa, K., Aryal, K.R., 2022. Semi-automatic classification for rapid delineation of the geohazard-prone areas using Sentinel-2 satellite imagery. SN Appl. Sci. 4. https://doi.org/10.1007/s42452-022-05028-6
  43. Vincent, M.J., Varalakshmi, P., Nithya, U., Sona, S., Thomas, A.M., 2022. Land Use Land Cover Change Detection using Semi-Automatic Classification- A Case Study in Chennai, Tiruvallur and Kanchipuram Districts. 2022 Int. Conf. Data Sci. Agents Artif. Intell. ICDSAAI 2022. https://doi.org/10.1109/ICDSAAI55433.2022.10028962
  44. Vulova, S., Kuhlemann, L.M., Tetzlaff, D., Soulsby, C., Kleinschmit, B., 2019. Assessment of evapotranspiration from urban vegetation across space and time: A case study in Berlin. 2019 10th Int. Work. Anal. Multitemporal Remote Sens. Images, MultiTemp 2019. https://doi.org/10.1109/Multi-Temp.2019.8866903
  45. Wahyudie, M., Ferdinan, Salampak, Yulianti, N., 2021. Forest and land fire prevention and management: Damage environmental of central Kalimantan, Indonesia. Int. J. Biol. Biomed. Eng. 15, 87–91. https://doi.org/10.46300/91011.2021.15.11
  46. Wang, H., Liu, L., 2024. Radiation Consistency Correction Method of Optical High Resolution Dual Camera Image. Springer Proc. Phys. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-97-6718-2_27
  47. Weng, Q., 2002. Land use change analysis in the Zhujiang Delta of China using satellite remote sensing, GIS and stochastic modelling. J. Environ. Manage. 64, 273–284. https://doi.org/10.1006/jema.2001.0509
  48. Zhang, Yunlin, Tian, L., Ding, B., Zhang, Yanwei, Liu, X., Wu, Y., 2024. Driving factors and prediction model of forest fire in Guizhou Province. Chinese J. Ecol. 43, 282–289. https://doi.org/10.13292/j.1000-4890.202401.017
  49. Zhu, Y., Ling, G.H.T., 2022. A Systematic Review of Morphological Transformation of Urban Open Spaces: Drivers, Trends, and Methods. Sustain. https://doi.org/10.3390/su141710856
  50. Zulkarnain, Z., Hartanto, R.M.N., Rahmatullah, S.N., Djamaludin, O.J., 2020. Development and Empowerment of Peatland Ecosystem (Analysis of the Peat Ecosystem Recovery and Development Program in the Districts of Kutai Kartanegara and East Kutai, East Kalimantan Province). Int. J. Multicult. Multireligious Underst. 7, 1. https://doi.org/10.18415/ijmmu.v7i6.1658

Last update:

No citation recorded.

Last update: 2026-07-18 02:55:26

No citation recorded.