DOI: https://doi.org/10.14710/jati.21.3.283-289

PENGENDALIAN DURASI PROYEK INFRASTRUKTUR MINYAK DAN GAS MENGGUNAKAN SINGULARITY FUNCTIONS-EARNED VALUE MANAGEMENT (SF-EVM)

*Daniel Steven Santoso  -  Universitas Pembangunan Nasional Veteran Jakarta, Indonesia
Alina Cynthia Dewi  -  Universitas Pembangunan Nasional Veteran Jakarta, Indonesia
Amenda Septiala Tarigan  -  Universitas Pembangunan Nasional Veteran Jakarta, Indonesia

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Abstract

Industri minyak dan gas bumi menghadapi tantangan akibat kompleksitas yang tinggi kerap memicu deviasi jadwal. Metode Earned Value Management (EVM) konvensional memiliki keterbatasan akibat asumsi linearitas, sehingga kurang responsif terhadap dinamika tren kinerja. Penelitian ini membandingkan akurasi estimasi durasi proyek infrastruktur migas antara metode EVM dan Singularity Functions-Earned Value Management (SF-EVM). Validasi dilakukan menggunakan data historis hingga bulan ke-22 untuk memprediksi realisasi bulan ke-23 melalui metrik Absolute Percentage Error (APE). Selain itu, dilakukan analisis sensitivitas dengan memvariasikan nilai Earned Value (EV) dari 90% hingga 110% untuk menguji stabilitas model. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan metode EVM memberikan estimasi pesimis sebesar 58,14 bulan dengan tingkat kesalahan 4,34%. Sebaliknya, SF-EVM menghasilkan estimasi yang lebih realistis yakni 50,25 bulan dengan tingkat kesalahan yang lebih rendah, yaitu 3,84%. Analisis sensitivitas turut mengonfirmasi bahwa metode SF-EVM stabil terhadap fluktuasi perubahan EV. Kesimpulannya, SF-EVM terbukti lebih andal sebagai instrumen pengendalian untuk menangkap diskontinuitas dan momentum pemulihan kinerja proyek.

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Keywords: earned value management; infrastruktur minyak dan gas; pengendalian proyek; singularity functions

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Section: Case Studies
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