DOI: https://doi.org/10.14710/medstat.9.2.119-132

KAJIAN AKTIVITAS EKONOMI LUAR NEGERI INDONESIA TERHADAP PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI INDONESIA PERIODE 1998-2014

*Ryan Hawari  -  Sekolah Tinggi Ilmu Statistik, Indonesia
Fitri Kartiasih  -  Sekolah Tinggi Ilmu Statistik, Indonesia
Open Access Copyright (c) 2016 MEDIA STATISTIKA under http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/.

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Abstract

Indonesia is a developing country which adopts an “open economic”. That caused Indonesia economic is strongly influenced by factors that come from outside of Indonesia. External factors in this research is referred to foreign debt, foreign direct investment, trade openness and exchange rate of rupiah with USD. The analytical method in this research used Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) which will focused on Impulse Response Function (IRF) and Forecast Error Variance Decomposition (FEVD). Based on result of IRF, exchange rate had a positive effect to economic growth, while foreign debt, foreign direct investment and trade openness had a negative effect to economic growth. Based on result of FEVD, shock on economic growth in Indonesia affected by economic growth itself (43.21%), followed by foreign debt (26.30%), trade openness (14.16%), foreign direct investment (8.29%) and exchange rate (8.04%)

 

Keywords: economic growth, trade openness, VECM, IRF, FEVD

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