DOI: https://doi.org/10.14710/medstat.12.2.214-225

PERAMALAN BEBAN LISTRIK DAERAH ISTIMEWA YOGYAKARTA DENGAN METODE SINGULAR SPECTRUM ANALYSIS (SSA)

*Herni Utami  -  Departemen Matematika, FMIPA, Universitas Gadjah Mada, Indonesia
Yunita Wulan Sari  -  Departemen Matematika, FMIPA, Universitas Gadjah Mada, Indonesia
Subanar Subanar  -  Departemen Matematika, FMIPA, Universitas Gadjah Mada, Indonesia
Abdurakhman Abdurakhman  -  Departemen Matematika, FMIPA, Universitas Gadjah Mada, Indonesia
Gunardi Gunardi  -  Departemen Matematika, FMIPA, Universitas Gadjah Mada, Indonesia
Open Access Copyright (c) 2019 MEDIA STATISTIKA under http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0.

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Abstract
This paper will study forecasting model for electricity demand in Yogyakarta and forecast it for 2019 until 2024. Usually, electricity demand data contain seasonal. We propose Singular Spectral Analysis-Linear Recurrent Formula (SSA-LRF) method. The SSA process consists of decomposing a time series for signal extraction and then reconstructing a less noisy series which is used for forecasting. The SSA-LRF method will be used to forecast h-step ahead. In this study, we use monthly electricity demand in Yogyakarta for 11 year (2008 to 2018). The forecasting results indicates that the forecast using window length of L=26 have good performance with MAPE of 1.9%.
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Keywords: Forecasting model; Singular Spectral Analysis; Linear Recurrent Formula; Electricity demand

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