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PERAMALAN LANGSUNG DAN TIDAK LANGSUNG MARKET SHARE MOBIL MENGGUNAKAN ARIMAX DENGAN EFEK VARIASI KALENDER

Dea Astri Titi  -  Departemen Statistika, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember (ITS), Indonesia
*Heri Kuswanto  -  Departemen Statistika, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember (ITS), Indonesia
Suhartono Suhartono  -  Departemen Statistika, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember (ITS), Indonesia
Open Access Copyright (c) 2020 MEDIA STATISTIKA under http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0.

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Abstract
Based on BPS data, the transportation industry sector contributed to about 8.01% of Indonesia's economic growth. The rapid growth of the transportation industry is also followed by the development of the automotive industry in Indonesia. The Exclusive Lisencee Agent of the Astra International group won a market share of 57% in April 2017. PT. Astra Daihatsu Motor, which is one of its subsidiaries, has a very rapid sales increase of 15% every year until Daihatsu's market share rises to 17.3%. Data from the Gabungan Industri Kendaraan Bermotor Indonesia (Gaikindo) shows an upward trend in car sales a month before Idul Fitri. This study carried out Daihatsu's direct and indirect market share forecasting using ARIMAX with a variety of calendar effects consisting of trends, monthly seasonal effects and Idul Fitri effects. The results indicated that  indirect forecasting through forecasting the car sales for each brand and total market using ARIMAX outperforms the others and is able to capture the pattern of the testing data. The resulting SMAPE value of ARIMAX is smaller than direct forecasting and indirect forecasting using ARIMA.

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Keywords: ARIMAX; Daihatsu; Direct; Indirect; Market share

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