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PEMODELAN INFLASI BERDASARKAN HARGA-HARGA PANGAN MENGGUNAKAN SPLINE MULTIVARIABEL

*Alan Prahutama  -  Jurusan Statistika, FSM, Universitas Diponegoro, Indonesia
Tiani Wahyu Utama  -  Jurusan Statistika, Universitas Muhammadiyah Semarang, Indonesia
Rezzy Eko Caraka  -  Jurusan Statistika, FSM, Universitas Diponegoro, Indonesia
Dede Zumrohtuliyosi  -  Jurusan Statistika, FSM, Universitas Diponegoro, Indonesia

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Abstract

Inflation is defined as a sustained increase in the general level of price for goods and services. Some of the events that led to inflation in Indonesia is rising fuel prices, rising prices of meat and chili. Inflation has negative impact, because decreased purchasing power.  So that the inflation model is needed. Modeling inflation can be use regression models. The approach can be performed with nonparametric regression, one of method of nonparametric regression is spline method. In this case, use three predictors to modeling inflation using spline multivariable. The predictors are price of rice, price of chicken, and price of chili. Obtained multivariable spline models with R-square of 93.94% with optimal m = 2 (quadratic) for 1 knots.

 

Keywords: Spline Multivariable, GCV, Inflation

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