MODELING OF SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE BASED ON PARTIAL LEAST SQUARE - STRUCTURAL EQUATION

Abstract

Variability of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) is one of the climatic features that influence global and regional climate dynamics. Missing data (gaps) in the SST dataset are worth investigating since they may statistically alter the value of the SST change. The partial least square-structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM) approach is used in this work to estimate the causality relationships between exogenous and endogenous latent variables. The findings of this study, which are significant indicators that have a loading factor value > 0.7 are as follows: i) sea surface temperature (^oC) as a measure of the latent variable changes in SST, ii) wind speed (m/s) and relative humidity (%) as a measure of the latent variable of weather, and iii) air temperature (^oC), long-wave solar radiation (w/m²) as a measure of climate latent variables. The size of the Rsquare value is influenced by the number of gaps. The results of the boostrapping show that the latent variables of weather and climate have a significant effect on changes in SST which are indicated by the value of t_statistics > t_tabel. The structural model obtained Changes in SST (η) = -0.330 weather + 0.793 climate + ζ. The model shows that the weather has a negative coefficient, which means that the better the weather conditions, the lower the SST changes. Climate has a positive coefficient, which means that the better the climate, the SST changes will also increase. Rising sea surface temperatures caused by an increase in climate can lead to global warming, impacting El-Nino and La-Nina events.