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*Nurhayadi Nurhayadi orcid scopus  -  Department of Mathematics and Science Education, Tadulako University, Indonesia
Open Access Copyright (c) 2022 MEDIA STATISTIKA under

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Computer technology has developed to a very advanced measure. Calculations using complex formulas are no longer an obstacle for industry and researchers. Along with advances in computing technology, the development of fuzzy system models is also experiencing rapid progress. This paper proposes a fuzzy model combined with Vector Autoregression. The fuzzy membership function is built by selecting the median of each set to be the center of the fuzzy set. The function chosen as the membership function is Gaussian. The fuzzy Vector Autoregression model obtained was applied to the Farmer's Exchange Rate in Central Java Province. The accuracy of the model is measured based on the Mean Absolute Percentage Error. The results of model trials on FER Central Java in 2014-2020, show a pretty good forecast, namely forecasting with MAPE around 5%, and not exceeding 10%.
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Keywords: Vector; Autoregression; Fuzzy; Gaussian; Median

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  1. Abadi, A.M., Nurhayadi, Musthofa, 2017. Optimization of Wavelet Weighted Fuzzy Model for Time Series Data and its Application to Forecast Jakarta Composite Index. Journal of Engineering and Applied Sciences, 12, 5672–5678
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