DOI: https://doi.org/10.14710/medstat.17.1.105-116

SPATIAL PANEL MODELING OF PROVINCIAL INFLATION IN INDONESIA TO MITIGATE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF HEALTH CRISES

*Ani Budi Astuti  -  Department of Statistics, Brawijaya University, St. Veteran, Ketawanggede, Malang, Indonesia 65145, Indonesia
Henny Pramoedyo  -  Department of Statistics, Universitas Brawijaya, Malang, Indonesia, Indonesia
Suci Astutik  -  Department of Statistics, Universitas Brawijaya, Malang, Indonesia, Indonesia
An Nisa Dwi Setiarini  -  Bachelor's Degree Graduate of Statistics Department, Universitas Brawijaya, Malang, Indonesia, Indonesia
Open Access Copyright (c) 2024 MEDIA STATISTIKA under http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0.

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Abstract
Probabilistic statistical modeling simplifies complex issues, including economic and health challenges, by applying inductive statistics. Spatial panel modeling, using Queen Contiguity weighting, has proven to be essential for analyzing inflation expenditure patterns during health crises, such as COVID-19 in Indonesia. This study highlights the impact of inflation on national economic stability and explores the inter-provincial relationships that influence inflation dynamics across expenditure groups. The purpose of this study is to develop a spatial panel model to address this gap, offering insights for policy and recovery strategies. The results reveal significant spatial interdependence in provincial inflation data, underscoring the role of spatial factors in economic analysis. Two models are identified: Spatial Autoregressive Model with Random Effects (SAR-RE) before the crisis and Spatial Error Model with Random Effects (SEM-RE) during the crisis. Transportation facilities consistently affect inflation, demonstrating the effectiveness of spatial panel modeling in guiding policies for economic stability and recovery.
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Keywords: Economic Disasters and Disease; Inflation; Queen Contiguity; Regression Spatial Panel; Statistical Modeling

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