DOI: https://doi.org/10.14710/medstat.17.2.221-232

THE ANALYSIS OF SOCIO-ECONOMIC EFFECT ON CRIMINALITY IN INDONESIA USING FUZZY CLUSTERWISE REGRESSION MODEL

Dian Fatimah Azzarah  -  Departemen Statistika, Fakultas Sains dan Matematika, Universitas Diponegoro, Indonesia
*Moch. Abdul Mukid scopus  -  Departemen Statistika, Fakultas Sains dan Matematika, Universitas Diponegoro, Indonesia
Di Asih I Maruddani scopus  -  Departemen Statistika, Fakultas Sains dan Matematika, Universitas Diponegoro, Indonesia
Masithoh Yessi Rochayani scopus  -  Departemen Statistika, Fakultas Sains dan Matematika, Universitas Diponegoro, Indonesia
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Abstract
Crime in Indonesia has shown a fluctuating trend and has increased significantly in recent years, with striking variations in crime rates between provinces. This phenomenon raises questions about the role of socio-economic factors such as education, poverty, and unemployment in influencing crime rates. Although there have been many studies examining the relationship between these variables and crime, the approaches used often assume that the relationship between variables is homogeneous across regions. In fact, heterogeneity in characteristics between provinces can cause different relationships. Therefore, an analysis approach is needed that can accommodate this diversity. This study proposes the Fuzzy Clusterwise Regression method which not only improves model accuracy compared to classical linear regression (with an increase in the coefficient of determination from 65.72% to more than 90%), but is also able to identify different patterns of relationships between regional groups (clusters). The results from FCR showed that the effect of socio-economic factors on crime varies between clusters and the optimum number of clusters is 4. In cluster 1, cluster 2, and cluster 3 all the variables had a significant influence on the amount of crime. Meanwhile, in cluster 4, the population poverty variable has no significant effect on the crime rate.
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Keywords: Crime; Socio-economic Factors; Fuzzy Clusterwise Regression
Funding: Universitas Diponegoro

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