DOI: https://doi.org/10.14710/medstat.18.1.105-115

STOCK PRICE PREDICTION IN INDONESIA USING EXTREME GRADIENT BOOSTING OPTIMIZED BY ADAPTIVE PARTICLE SWARM OPTIMIZATION

Alya Mirza Safira  -  Data Science Study Program, Universitas Pembangunan Nasional “Veteran” Jawa Timur, Surabaya, Indonesia, Indonesia
*Trimono Trimono scopus  -  Department of Data Science, Faculty of Computer Science, Universitas Pembangunan Nasional "Veteran" Jawa Timur, Surabaya, Indonesia
Kartika Maulida Hindrayani  -  Data Science Study Program, Universitas Pembangunan Nasional “Veteran” Jawa Timur, Surabaya, Indonesia, Indonesia
Open Access Copyright (c) 2025 MEDIA STATISTIKA under http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0.

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Abstract
High volatility is a major problem in generating accurate predictions of stock prices. It also causes unstable predictions and increases the loss risk. Therefore, an adaptive prediction model that is able to adjust to dynamic data pattern changes is needed. This study aims to address these issues by developing an Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) model optimized using Adaptive Particle Swarm Optimization (APSO). XGBoost was chosen for its ability to handle nonlinear relationships and minimize overfitting, while APSO serves to adaptively adjust parameters to obtain the optimal combination of hyperparameters. The novelty of this research lies in the application of XGBoost-APSO integration in the context of stock price prediction in the Indonesian capital market, which is characterized by high volatility. The study was conducted using daily closing price data of PT Aneka Tambang Tbk (ANTM) shares from November 2020 to May 2025 to predict prices seven days ahead. The results show that the XGBoost-APSO model provides the best performance with a MAPE value of 0.2%, superior to XGBoost-PSO (2.58%) and standard XGBoost (2.91%). This approach effectively improves prediction accuracy and supports quick and accurate investment decision making, while contributing to the development of intelligent prediction systems in the Indonesian capital market.
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Keywords: Stock Price; Fluctuation; Prediction; XGBoost; APSO

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