Analisis Probabilitas Bahaya Gempa di Ibu Kota Baru Indonesia

Abstract

Efforts to move the Capital of Indonesia to Kalimantan are intended to solve the problem of overpopulation in Jakarta, so it’s possible there are massive infrastructure development in the future. In this study conducted Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) and made an earthquake hazard map that serves to analyze earthquake-resistant buildings for the New Capital of Indonesia. The PSHA and earthquake map was developed for 2% probability exceeded in 50 years or 2500-return period. The results of the analysis on three important periods, comprised of PGA, S_s, and S₁ with a return period of 2500 years have higher acceleration at bedrock if performed by GMPE 2017 rather than GMPE 2010 for the period between PGA and 0.1s. Maximum earthquake acceleration on bedrock resulting from the creation of earthquake hazard maps in New Capital of Indonesia for period of PGA, 0.2s, and 1.0s at bedrock for return period of 2500 years is 0.2-0.25g, 0.4-0.5g, and 0-0.15g, respectively. The earthquake threat index in the New Capital of Indonesia is categorized as low according to Indonesia's National Board for Disaster Management (BNPB) regulations (PGA<0.2501g).