DOI: https://doi.org/10.14710/pwk.v21i2.70203

Pemodelan Spasial untuk Prediksi Perubahan Penggunaan Lahan di Kabupaten Kendal, Provinsi Jawa Tengah

*Albertus Erico Jerry Krisna Nugroho orcid  -  Universitas Sebelas Maret, Indonesia
Imam Mahdi orcid  -  Universitas Sebelas Maret, Indonesia
Siska Dwi Utami  -  Universitas Sebelas Maret, Indonesia
Pipit Wijayanti orcid scopus  -  Universitas Sebelas Maret, Indonesia
Rita Noviani orcid scopus  -  Universitas Sebelas Maret, Indonesia

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Abstract
Dinamika perubahan penggunaan lahan akibat perkembangan wilayah di Kabupaten Kendal menimbulkan tantangan serius terhadap perencanaan tata ruang dan keberlanjutan lingkungan. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis perubahan penggunaan lahan pada periode 2019 hingga 2024 serta memprediksi distribusi penggunaan lahan pada tahun 2039 melalui pendekatan pemodelan spasial. Metode yang digunakan adalah Sistem Informasi Geografis dan model Cellular Automata–Markov Chain untuk mengklasifikasikan serta memproyeksikan transisi penggunaan lahan. Klasifikasi dilakukan dengan metode supervised classification berbasis maximum likelihood, dan evaluasi akurasi dilakukan menggunakan overall accuracy dan koefisien kappa. Model prediksi menunjukkan tingkat akurasi yang tinggi dengan nilai kappa sebesar 0,83. Hasil analisis menunjukkan adanya peningkatan signifikan pada lahan terbangun yang diproyeksikan mencapai 39% dari total luas wilayah pada tahun 2039, sedangkan lahan produktif seperti sawah dan tambak diperkirakan mengalami penurunan. Temuan ini membuktikan efektivitas pemodelan spasial dalam memberikan informasi berbasis data untuk mengantisipasi tren penggunaan lahan di masa depan. Penelitian ini memberikan dasar ilmiah bagi perumusan kebijakan pengelolaan lahan yang berkelanjutan di wilayah dengan pertumbuhan menengah seperti Kabupaten Kendal.

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Keywords: Automata Seluler, Geospasial, Perubahan Penggunaan Lahan, Prediksi

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