DOI: https://doi.org/10.14710/pwk.v21i2.70203

Pemodelan Spasial untuk Prediksi Perubahan Penggunaan Lahan di Kabupaten Kendal, Provinsi Jawa Tengah

*Albertus Erico Jerry Krisna Nugroho orcid  -  Universitas Sebelas Maret, Indonesia
Imam Mahdi orcid  -  Universitas Sebelas Maret, Indonesia
Siska Dwi Utami  -  Universitas Sebelas Maret, Indonesia
Pipit Wijayanti orcid scopus  -  Universitas Sebelas Maret, Indonesia
Rita Noviani orcid scopus  -  Universitas Sebelas Maret, Indonesia

Citation Format:
Abstract
Dinamika perubahan penggunaan lahan akibat perkembangan wilayah di Kabupaten Kendal menimbulkan tantangan serius terhadap perencanaan tata ruang dan keberlanjutan lingkungan. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis perubahan penggunaan lahan pada periode 2019 hingga 2024 serta memprediksi distribusi penggunaan lahan pada tahun 2039 melalui pendekatan pemodelan spasial. Metode yang digunakan adalah Sistem Informasi Geografis dan model Cellular Automata–Markov Chain untuk mengklasifikasikan serta memproyeksikan transisi penggunaan lahan. Klasifikasi dilakukan dengan metode supervised classification berbasis maximum likelihood, dan evaluasi akurasi dilakukan menggunakan overall accuracy dan koefisien kappa. Model prediksi menunjukkan tingkat akurasi yang tinggi dengan nilai kappa sebesar 0,83. Hasil analisis menunjukkan adanya peningkatan signifikan pada lahan terbangun yang diproyeksikan mencapai 39% dari total luas wilayah pada tahun 2039, sedangkan lahan produktif seperti sawah dan tambak diperkirakan mengalami penurunan. Temuan ini membuktikan efektivitas pemodelan spasial dalam memberikan informasi berbasis data untuk mengantisipasi tren penggunaan lahan di masa depan. Penelitian ini memberikan dasar ilmiah bagi perumusan kebijakan pengelolaan lahan yang berkelanjutan di wilayah dengan pertumbuhan menengah seperti Kabupaten Kendal.

Note: This article has supplementary file(s).

Fulltext View|Download |  Research Results
Lampiran
Subject
Type Research Results
  Download (1MB)    Indexing metadata
Keywords: Automata Seluler, Geospasial, Perubahan Penggunaan Lahan, Prediksi

Article Metrics:

Article Info
Section: Articles
Language : ID
Recent articles
Preferensi Pengguna Akomodasi Airbnb Secara Spasial di Daerah Istimewa Yogyakarta, Indonesia Fenomena Urban Heat Island di Kota Palembang Berdasarkan Land Surface Temperature (LST) dan Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) Understanding Kampung Transformation through Development Thinking Perspective: Insights from ‘Kampung Berkebun Pajajaran’ More recent articles
Most cited articles
Peluang Pengelolaan Sampah Sebagai Strategi Mitigasi Dalam Mewujudkan Ketahanan Iklim Kota Semarang Evaluasi Perubahan Penggunaan Lahan Kecamatan di Daerah Aliran Sungai Cisadane Kabupaten Bogor Kajian Erosi Dan Hasil Sedimen Untuk Konservasi Lahan DAS Kreo Hulu Kajian Perubahan Penggunaan Lahan dan Struktur Ruang Kota Bima The Quality of Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) Shelter Services of Mangkang-Penggaron Route in CBD Semarang More cited articles
  1. Aburas, M. M., Ahamad, M. S. S., & Omar, N. Q. (2019). Spatio-temporal simulation and prediction of land-use change using conventional and machine learning models: a review. Environmental Monitoring and Assessment, 191(4). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-019-7330-6
  2. Adiyaksa, F., & Djojomartono, P. N. (2020). Evaluasi Alih Fungsi Lahan Pertanian Menjadi Lahan Industri di Kabupaten Kendal Tahun 2014-2018. Journal of Geospatial Information Science and Engineering, 3(1), 71–78. https://doi.org/10.22146/jgise
  3. Agustina, I. H., Aji, R. R., Fardani, I., Rochman, G. P., Ekasari, A. M., & Mohmed, F. A. J. (2022). Cellular Automata for Cirebon City Land Cover and Development Prediction. Planning Malaysia, 20(1), 77–88. https://doi.org/10.21837/PM.V20I20.1080
  4. Alqadhi, S., Mallick, J., Balha, A., Bindajam, A., Singh, C. K., & Hoa, P. V. (2021). Spatial and decadal prediction of land use/land cover using multi-layer perceptron-neural network (MLP-NN) algorithm for a semi-arid region of Asir, Saudi Arabia. Earth Science Informatics, 14(3), 1547–1562. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12145-021-00633-2
  5. Ambarwulan, W., Yulianto, F., Widiatmaka, W., Rahadiati, A., Tarigan, S. D., Firmansyah, I., & Hasibuan, M. A. S. (2023). Modelling land use/land cover projection using different scenarios in the Cisadane Watershed, Indonesia: Implication on deforestation and food security. Egyptian Journal of Remote Sensing and Space Science, 26(2), 273–283. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrs.2023.04.002
  6. Baihaqi, H. F., Prasetyo, Y., & Bashit, N. (2019). Analisis Perkembangan Kawasan Industri Kendal Terhadap Perubahan Suhu Permukaan (Studi Kasus: Kawasan Industri Kendal, Kabupaten Kendal). Jurnal Geodesi Undip, 9(1), 176–186
  7. Dewa, D. D., Buchori, I., Rudiarto, I., & Sejati, A. W. (2025). Spatiotemporal Variations of Urban Expansion and its Relation with Geomorphological Complexity: a Case Study of the Yogyakarta Urban Region, Indonesia. Applied Spatial Analysis and Policy, 18(1). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12061-024-09629-z
  8. Dinda, R., Mariati, H., & Fitriawan, D. (2022). Analisis Proyeksi Penduduk Dan Alokasi Kebutuhan Lahan Permukiman Di Kota Padang 2020-2030. Jurnal Azimut, 4(1), 19. https://doi.org/10.31317/jaz.v4i1.790
  9. DISKOMINFO Kab Kendal. (2025). Bupati Kendal Dukung Jawa Tengah Jadi Lumbung Padi Pangan Nasional. KendalKab.Go.Id. https://www.kendalkab.go.id/berita/id/20250423001/bupati_kendal_dukung_jawa_tengah_jadi_lumbung_pangan_nasional
  10. Fitawok, M. B., Derudder, B., Minale, A. S., & Passel, S. Van. (2020). Modeling the Impact of Urbanization on Land-Use Change in Bahir Dar City, Ethiopia: An Integrated Cellular Automata–Markov Chain Approach. Land, 9(4), 115. https://doi.org/10.3390/land9040115
  11. Fitriyanto, B. R., Helmi, M., & Hadiyanto. (2019). Model Prediksi Perubahan Penggunaan Lahan Dengan Pendekatan Sistem Informasi Geografis Dan Cellular Automata Markov Chain: Studi Kasus Kabupaten Rokan Hulu. Jurnal Teknologi Technoscientia, 11(2), 137–147
  12. Hakim, A. M. Y., Baja, S., Rampisela, D. A., & Arif, S. (2019). Spatial dynamic prediction of landuse / landcover change (case study: Tamalanrea sub-district, makassar city). IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science, 280(1). https://doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/280/1/012023
  13. Hidayah, H. S. N., Ni’matuzzahroh, N., Kuswati, F. Y., Utama, R. A., Fariz, T. R., Amalia, A. V., & Haris, A. (2023). Kajian Perubahan Tutupan Lahan Terbangun di Daerah Peri Urban Kabupaten Kendal. Uniplan: Journal of Urban and Regional Planning, 4(2), 77. https://doi.org/10.26418/uniplan.v4i2.68456
  14. Jatayu, A., Saizen, I., Rustiadi, E., Pribadi, D. O., & Juanda, B. (2022). Urban Form Dynamics and Modelling towards Sustainable Hinterland Development in North Cianjur, Jakarta–Bandung Mega-Urban Region. Sustainability (Switzerland), 14(2). https://doi.org/10.3390/su14020907
  15. Jatayu, A., Zahara, S., Syafitri, R. A. W. D., Dafadhilah, S., Roosyanindhita, D. R., Sidiq, M. I., & Priambodo, M. S. (2024). Measuring Levels of Infrastructure Development and its Impact on Regional Growth - Insights from Indonesia. IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science. https://doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/1353/1/012011
  16. Kar, R., Obi Reddy, G. P., Kumar, N., & Singh, S. K. (2018). Monitoring spatio-temporal dynamics of urban and peri-urban landscape using remote sensing and GIS – A case study from Central India. Egyptian Journal of Remote Sensing and Space Science, 21(3), 401–411. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrs.2017.12.006
  17. Kelly-Fair, M., Gopal, S., Koch, M., Kusumaningrum, H. P., Helmi, M., Khairunnisa, D., & Kaufman, L. (2022). Analysis of Land Use and Land Cover Changes through the Lens of SDGs in Semarang, Indonesia. Sustainability (Switzerland), 14(13). https://doi.org/10.3390/su14137592
  18. Kumar, A., & Sharma, S. K. (2022). Information cryptography using cellular automata and digital image processing. Journal of Discrete Mathematical Sciences and Cryptography, 25(4), 1105–1111. https://doi.org/10.1080/09720529.2022.2072437
  19. Lamidi, L. (2017). Perubahan Penggunaan Lahan Di Kota Serang, Provinsi Banten. Tataloka, 20(1), 65. https://doi.org/10.14710/tataloka.20.1.65-74
  20. Letsoin, S. M. A., Herak, D., Rahmawan, F., & Purwestri, R. C. (2020). Land cover changes from 1990 to 2019 in Papua, Indonesia: Results of the remote sensing imagery. Sustainability (Switzerland), 12(16), 1–18. https://doi.org/10.3390/su12166623
  21. Maheng, D., Pathirana, A., & Zevenbergen, C. (2021). A preliminary study on the impact of landscape pattern changes due to urbanization: Case study of Jakarta, Indonesia. Land, 10(2), 1–27. https://doi.org/10.3390/land10020218
  22. Maysarah, E. I., Primatasari, E. I., Billah, M., Anggraeni, S. O. D., Hadayanti, R. L., Kusumaningtyas, R. F., Ismawati, Z., Nugroho, S., Suharto, S., Rozikin, C., & Nurzen, M. (2024). Kabupaten Kendal Dalam Angka 2024 (Vol. 01). Badan Pusat Statistik Kabupaten Kendal
  23. Muhammad, R., Zhang, W., Abbas, Z., Guo, F., & Gwiazdzinski, L. (2022). Spatiotemporal Change Analysis and Prediction of Future Land Use and Land Cover Changes Using QGIS MOLUSCE Plugin and Remote Sensing Big Data: A Case Study of Linyi, China. Land, 11(3). https://doi.org/10.3390/land11030419
  24. Nabila, F. F., Hardati, P., & Aji, A. (2025). Evaluasi Kesesuaian Lahan Kawasan Industri menggunakan Sistem Informasi Geografis di Kabupaten Kendal Evaluation of Land Suitability for Industrial Estate using Geographic Information System in Kendal Regency. Jurnal Perencanaan Wilayah, Kota Dan Permukiman, 7(1), 198–210. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.20961/desa-kota.v7i1.93048.%25p
  25. Nedd, R., Light, K., Owens, M., James, N., Johnson, E., & Anandhi, A. (2021). A Synthesis of Land Use/Land Cover Studies: Definitions, Classification Systems, Meta-Studies, Challenges and Knowledge Gaps on a Global Landscape. Land, 10(2020), 1–30
  26. Nurwanda, A., & Honjo, T. (2020). The prediction of city expansion and land surface temperature in Bogor City, Indonesia. Sustainable Cities and Society, 52(December 2018), 101772. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scs.2019.101772
  27. Permatasari, R. J., Damayanti, A., Indra, T. L., & Dimyati, M. (2021). Prediction of land cover changes in Penajam Paser Utara Regency using cellular automata and markov model. IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science, 623(1). https://doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/623/1/012005
  28. Prasetyo, Y., Bashit, N., & Baihaqi, H. F. (2021). Analisis Korelasi Kawasan Pengembangan Kendal Industrial Park Terhadap Ruang Terbuka Hijau. Jurnal Kelautan Tropis, 24(1), 102–112. https://doi.org/10.14710/jkt.v24i1.10297
  29. Prayitno, G., Sari, N., Hasyim, A. W., & Nyoman Widhi, S. W. (2020). Land-use prediction in Pandaan District pasuruan regency. International Journal of GEOMATE, 18(65), 64–71. https://doi.org/10.21660/2020.65.41738
  30. Qacami, M., Khattabi, A., Lahssini, S., Rifai, N., & Meliho, M. (2023). Land-cover/land-use change dynamics modeling based on land change modeler. Annals of Regional Science, 70(1), 237–258. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00168-022-01169-z
  31. Rachman, F., Huang, J., Xue, X., & Marfai, M. A. (2024). Insights from 30 Years of Land Use/Land Cover Transitions in Jakarta, Indonesia, via Intensity Analysis. Land, 13(4). https://doi.org/10.3390/land13040545
  32. Rimal, B., Zhang, L., Keshtkar, H., Haack, B. N., Rijal, S., & Zhang, P. (2018). Land use/land cover dynamics and modeling of urban land expansion by the integration of cellular automata and markov chain. ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information, 7(4). https://doi.org/10.3390/ijgi7040154
  33. Sadewo, M. N., & Buchori, I. (2018). Simulasi Perubahan Penggunaan Lahan Akibat Pembangunan Kawasan Industri Kendal (KIK) Berbasis Cellular Automata. Majalah Geografi Indonesia, 32(2), 115. https://doi.org/10.22146/mgi.33755
  34. Salabim, A. (2021). Luas Tanaman Padi di Kendal Tahun 2021 Berkurang dari Tahun sebelumnya. SWARA KENDAL. https://swarakendal.com/luas-tanaman-padi-di-kendal-tahun-2021-berkurang-dari-tahun-sebelumnya/
  35. Sejati, A. W., Buchori, I., & Rudiarto, I. (2019). The spatio-temporal trends of urban growth and surface urban heat islands over two decades in the Semarang Metropolitan Region. Sustainable Cities and Society, 46(January), 101432. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scs.2019.101432
  36. Siswanto, S., Nuryanto, D. E., Ferdiansyah, M. R., Prastiwi, A. D., Dewi, O. C., Gamal, A., & Dimyati, M. (2023). Spatio-temporal characteristics of urban heat Island of Jakarta metropolitan. Remote Sensing Applications: Society and Environment, 32(February), 101062. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rsase.2023.101062
  37. Syafitri, R. A. W. D., & Susetyo, C. (2019). Pemodelan Pertumbuhan Lahan Terbangun Sebagai Upaya Prediksi Perubahan Lahan Pertanian di Kabupaten Karanganyar. Jurnal Teknik ITS, 7(2). https://doi.org/10.12962/j23373539.v7i2.36453
  38. Tariq, A., & Mumtaz, F. (2023). A series of spatio-temporal analyses and predicting modeling of land use and land cover changes using an integrated Markov chain and cellular automata models. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 30(16), 47470–47484. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-023-25722-1
  39. van Vliet, J., Bregt, A. K., Brown, D. G., van Delden, H., Heckbert, S., & Verburg, P. H. (2016). A review of current calibration and validation practices in land-change modeling. Environmental Modelling and Software, 82, 174–182. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2016.04.017
  40. Virtriana, R., Riqqi, A., Anggraini, T. S., Fauzan, K. N., Ihsan, K. T. N., Mustika, F. C., Atmaja, F. W., Suwardhi, D., Harto, A. B., Sakti, A. D., Deliar, A., Soeksmantono, B., & Wikantika, K. (2022). DEVELOPMENT of GEOSPATIAL INFORMATION INTEGRATED with BIG DATA to AGRICULTURAL HAZARD MONITORING in WEST JAVA. International Archives of the Photogrammetry, Remote Sensing and Spatial Information Sciences - ISPRS Archives, 46(M-2–2022), 209–215. https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-Archives-XLVI-M-2-2022-209-2022
  41. Więckowska, B., Kubiak, K. B., Jóźwiak, P., Moryson, W., & Stawińska-Witoszyńska, B. (2022). Cohen’s Kappa Coefficient as a Measure to Assess Classification Improvement following the Addition of a New Marker to a Regression Model. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 19(16). https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph191610213
  42. Wijaya, J., & Tjahjono, H. (2024). Analisis Kesesuaian Penggunaan Lahan Di Kabupaten Kendal Terhadap Rencana Tata Ruang Wilayah (RTRW) Kabupaten Kendal. Geo-Image Journal, 13(2)
  43. Wijaya, M. I. H., Ariyani, N. M., Priambudi, B. N., Gumelar, A., & Ichsanudin, H. (2021). Urban Heat Island: Identification of Spatial Patterns of Green Open Space for Mitigation in Kendal Industrial Park, Indonesia. IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science, 887(1). https://doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/887/1/012010

Last update:

No citation recorded.

Last update: 2025-07-22 14:36:54

No citation recorded.