Determinant Analysis for Food SecurityEmpirical Study in Central Java Province

Abstract

This study examines the determinants of food security in Central Java Province, with a particular  focus  on  the  role  of  regional  fiscal  capacitywithinthe  context  of  fiscal decentralization. Despite strong aggregate food production, disparities in welfare indicate unresolved structural challenges, highlightingthe need to better understand macro-level drivers  of  food  security  at  the  regional  level.  This  research  employs  panel  data  of  35 regencies/cities over the period 2019-2023 and applies a Fixed Effects Model (FEM) to controlfor unobserved heterogeneity. The analysis incorporates key variables, including agricultural  productivity,  per  capita  income,  poverty  rate,  education  level,  food  prices, and regional fiscal capacity.The estimation results show that fiscal capacity, per capita income, agricultural productivity, and education have a positive and significant effect on food  security,  while  poverty  and  food  prices  exert  a  negative  influence.  Among  these factors, fiscal capacity demonstrates a statistically significant contribution, confirming its role as an important enabler in strengthening regional food security. These findings imply that food security is shaped by an integrated interaction of economic, social, and fiscal factors.  Strengthening  regional  fiscal  capacity,  alongside  poverty  reduction,  human capital improvement, and food price stabilization, is essential to achieve sustainable food security. This study contributes to the limited empirical literature by providing one of the first   panel-based   analyses   at   the   regency/city   level   in   Indonesia   that explicitly incorporates fiscal capacityas a determinant of food security.