DOI: https://doi.org/10.14710/gp.10.1.2025.124-142

ANALISIS TREN DAN FORECASTING PERUBAHAN TATA GUNA LAHAN KOTA SEMARANG

*Mochamad Rizki Fitrianto  -  Universitas Diponegoro|Indonesia, Indonesia
Amalia Rizka Sugiarto  -  Universitas Singaperbangsa Karawang|Indonesia, Indonesia

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Abstract

Perubahan tata guna lahan merupakan isu strategis yang memengaruhi lingkungan dan kesejahteraan sosial-ekonomi, terutama di kawasan perkotaan seperti Kota Semarang. Penelitian ini bertujuan menganalisis tren dan meramalkan perubahan penggunaan lahan di Kota Semarang dengan menggunakan pendekatan forecasting deret waktu (time series). Data penggunaan lahan dari tahun 2012 hingga 2016 dianalisis untuk berbagai kategori lahan seperti sawah, kebun, ladang, tambak, dan lahan terbangun. Hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa secara umum terjadi peningkatan luas lahan terbangun, dengan prediksi mencapai 61% dari total luas kota pada tahun 2032. Sebaliknya, tren penurunan signifikan terjadi pada sawah, ladang, dan kebun, yang berimplikasi pada ketahanan pangan dan keseimbangan ekologis kota. Tren penggunaan tambak menunjukkan peningkatan, sementara padang rumput mengalami penurunan moderat. Fluktuasi pada lahan yang ditanami pohon cenderung menuju kenaikan. Hasil peramalan ini menegaskan perlunya strategi tata kelola lahan berkelanjutan dan perencanaan ruang terbuka hijau guna menjaga kualitas lingkungan dan kenyamanan perkotaan. Studi ini memberikan kontribusi penting bagi pengambil kebijakan dalam mengantisipasi dampak lingkungan dan sosial dari perubahan tata guna lahan di masa depan.

 

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Keywords: Perubahan Lahan, Forecasting, Time Series, Kota Semarang, Perencanaan Kota  

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  18. Mokadem, N. (2021). Land-use change, socioeconomic welfare, and gender roles in rural Indonesia [Georg-August-University Göttingen]. https://doi.org/10.53846/goediss-8635
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  33. Ayalew, A. D., Wagner, P. D., Sahlu, D., & Fohrer, N. (2022). Land use change and climate dynamics in the Rift Valley Lake Basin, Ethiopia. Environmental Monitoring and Assessment, 194(11), 791. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-022-10393-1
  34. BANSAL, S., SRIVASTAV, S. K., ROY, P. S., & KRISHNAMURTHY, Y. V. N. (2016). AN ANALYSIS OF LAND USE AND LAND COVER DYNAMICS AND CAUSATIVE DRIVERS IN A THICKLY POPULATED YAMUNA RIVER BASIN OF INDIA. Applied Ecology and Environmental Research, 14(3), 773–792. https://doi.org/10.15666/aeer/1403_773792
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  50. Sari, R. W. S. W. S., & Yuliani, E. (2022). Identifikasi Dampak Alih Fungsi Lahan Pertanian Ke Non Pertanian Untuk Perumahan. Jurnal Kajian Ruang, 1(2), 255. https://doi.org/10.30659/jkr.v1i2.20032
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  52. Setiawan, Yudi. ; Y. K. (n.d.). Characterizing temporal vegetation dynamics of wavelet-filtered MODIS EVI to detect land use change in Java Island
  53. Skokanová, H. ; S. T. (2016). Land Use Changes as Basis for Environmental Protection: The Example of the South Moravian Region, Czech Republic. Taylor and Francis
  54. Tadese, M., Kumar, L., Koech, R., & Kogo, B. K. (2020). Mapping of land-use/land-cover changes and its dynamics in Awash River Basin using remote sensing and GIS. Remote Sensing Applications: Society and Environment, 19, 100352. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rsase.2020.100352
  55. Utami, S. M., Setiawati, N. A., & Marta, N. A. (2024). Economic Space Movement: Shifting Functions of Semarang Suburban Land at the Beginning of the 21st Century. Indonesian Historical Studies, 8(1), 64–75. https://doi.org/10.14710/ihis.v8i1.19235
  56. Winkler, K., Fuchs, R., Rounsevell, M., & Herold, M. (2021). Global land use changes are four times greater than previously estimated. Nature Communications, 12(1), 2501. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-22702-2

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