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Modelling the Optimal Electricity Mix for Togo by 2050 Using OSeMOSYS

1Centre d'Excellence Régional pour la Maîtrise de l'Electricité (CERME), Université de Lomé, 01 BP 1515 Lomé 01, Togo

2Département de Génie Electrique, École Nationale Supérieure d'Ingénieurs (ENSI), Université de Lomé, 01 BP 1515 Lomé 01, Togo

3Laboratoire de Recherche en Sciences de l’Ingénieur (LARSI), Département de Génie Électrique, Institut Universitaire de Technologie, Université Nazi BONI, 01 BP 1091 Bobo-Dioulasso 01, Burkina Faso

Received: 6 Nov 2022; Revised: 12 Feb 2023; Accepted: 24 Feb 2023; Available online: 28 Feb 2023; Published: 15 Mar 2023.
Editor(s): Grigorios Kyriakopoulos
Open Access Copyright (c) 2023 The Author(s). Published by Centre of Biomass and Renewable Energy (CBIORE)
Creative Commons License This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

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This work uses bottom-up modeling to explore the future evolution trajectories of the electricity mix in Togo by 2050. The objective is to investigate the evolution of the mix and the future investments needed to achieve the sustainable energy and climate change goals. Three scenarios were developed using OSeMOSYS. The reference scenario, named Business As Usual, closely reflects the evolution of the Togolese electricity sector under a business-as-usual assumption and planned capacity increases up to 2030. The second scenario, Net Zero by 2050, is based on the first scenario while ensuring that CO2 emissions cancel out in 2050 by following the Weibull law. The third scenario called Emission Penalty aims not only at the integration of renewable energies like the second one but also at the least cost electricity mix if emission penalties are applied. The results of the cost optimization indicate that photovoltaic and importation are the optimal choices ahead of gas and hydropower. The renewable energy aspect of the electricity mix is more highlighted in the last scenario. At the same time, the model shows that greater energy independence is achievable at the cost of a transitory increase in the cost of the electricity system. A tenfold investment effort is needed in 2030 to ensure either continuity of the status quo or a shift in strategy.

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Keywords: Bottom-up modeling; renewable energy; emission penalties; optimization; Togo
Funding: Centre d'Excellence Régional pour la Maîtrise de l'Electricité (CERME), Université de Lomé

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