skip to main content

Modelling the Optimal Electricity Mix for Togo by 2050 Using OSeMOSYS

1Centre d'Excellence Régional pour la Maîtrise de l'Electricité (CERME), Université de Lomé, 01 BP 1515 Lomé 01, Togo

2Département de Génie Electrique, École Nationale Supérieure d'Ingénieurs (ENSI), Université de Lomé, 01 BP 1515 Lomé 01, Togo

3Laboratoire de Recherche en Sciences de l’Ingénieur (LARSI), Département de Génie Électrique, Institut Universitaire de Technologie, Université Nazi BONI, 01 BP 1091 Bobo-Dioulasso 01, Burkina Faso

Received: 6 Nov 2022; Revised: 12 Feb 2023; Accepted: 24 Feb 2023; Available online: 28 Feb 2023; Published: 15 Mar 2023.
Editor(s): Grigorios Kyriakopoulos
Open Access Copyright (c) 2023 The Author(s). Published by Centre of Biomass and Renewable Energy (CBIORE)
Creative Commons License This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Citation Format:

This work uses bottom-up modeling to explore the future evolution trajectories of the electricity mix in Togo by 2050. The objective is to investigate the evolution of the mix and the future investments needed to achieve the sustainable energy and climate change goals. Three scenarios were developed using OSeMOSYS. The reference scenario, named Business As Usual, closely reflects the evolution of the Togolese electricity sector under a business-as-usual assumption and planned capacity increases up to 2030. The second scenario, Net Zero by 2050, is based on the first scenario while ensuring that CO2 emissions cancel out in 2050 by following the Weibull law. The third scenario called Emission Penalty aims not only at the integration of renewable energies like the second one but also at the least cost electricity mix if emission penalties are applied. The results of the cost optimization indicate that photovoltaic and importation are the optimal choices ahead of gas and hydropower. The renewable energy aspect of the electricity mix is more highlighted in the last scenario. At the same time, the model shows that greater energy independence is achievable at the cost of a transitory increase in the cost of the electricity system. A tenfold investment effort is needed in 2030 to ensure either continuity of the status quo or a shift in strategy.

Fulltext View|Download
Keywords: Bottom-up modeling; renewable energy; emission penalties; optimization; Togo
Funding: Centre d'Excellence Régional pour la Maîtrise de l'Electricité (CERME), Université de Lomé

Article Metrics:

  1. African Development Bank (2019). Togo - Projet d’Électrification Rurale CIZO – Rapport final CPR; Available from [Accessed 17 Sep. 2022]
  2. Agbossou A., Fontodji J.K., Ayassou K., Tchegueni S., Segla K.N., Adjonou K., Bokovi Y., Ajayon A.-L., Polo-Akpisso A., Kuylenstierna J.C.I., Malley C.S., Michalopoulou E. & Slater J. (2022). Integrated climate change and air pollution mitigation assessment for Togo. Science of The Total Environment, 844, 157107;
  3. Ahmed S., Mahmood A., Hasan A., Sidhu G.A.S. & Butt M.F.U. (2016). A comparative review of China, India and Pakistan renewable energy sectors and sharing opportunities. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 57, 216–225;
  4. Allington L., Cannone C., Pappis I., Cervantes Barron K., Usher W., Pye S., Brown E., Howells M., Walker M., Ahsan A., Charbonnier F., Halloran C., Hirmer S., Taliotis C., Sundin C., Sridha V., Ramos E., Brinkerink M., Deane P. & Rogner H. (2021). Selected ‘Starter Kit’ energy system modelling data for Togo;
  5. Alova G., Trotter P.A. & Money A. (2021). A machine-learning approach to predicting Africa’s electricity mix based on planned power plants and their chances of success. Nature Energy, 6 (2), 158–166;
  6. Amou A., Ouro-Djobo S. & Napo K. (2010). Solar Irradiation in Togo. International Scientific Journal for Alternative Energy and Ecology, (2), 14–21;
  7. Anna Zygierewicz & Lucia Salvador Sanz (2021). Renewable Energy Directive, Revision of Directive (EU) 2018/2001. EPRS | European Parliamentary Research Service.; Available from
  8. Antonanzas-Torres F., Antonanzas J. & Blanco-Fernandez J. (2021). State-of-the-Art of Mini Grids for Rural Electrification in West Africa. Energies, 14 (4), 990;
  9. Anwar N. & Elfaki K.E. (2021). Examining the Relationship Between Energy Consumption, Economic Growth and Environmental Degradation in Indonesia: Do Capital and Trade Openness Matter? International Journal of Renewable Energy Development, 10 (4), 769–778;
  10. Autorité de Règlementation du Secteur de l’Electricité (2022). Rapport annuel ARSE 2020; Available from [Accessed 8 Aug. 2022]
  11. Baležentis T. & Štreimikienė D. (2019). Sustainability in the Electricity Sector through Advanced Technologies: Energy Mix Transition and Smart Grid Technology in China. Energies, 12 (6), 1142;
  12. Battula A.R., Vuddanti S. & Salkuti S.R. (2021). Review of Energy Management System Approaches in Microgrids. Energies, 14 (17), 5459;
  13. Becker P. (2010). The energy concept of Federal Government; Das Energiekonzept der Bundesregierung; Available from
  14. Chambile E., Ijumba N., Mkandawire B. & Hakizimana J. de D. (2021). Modelling of environmental emission in Kenyan, Rwandan, and Tanzanian electrical power systems. Journal of Cleaner Production, 312, 127830;
  15. Chammas M., Pena Verrier G., Bideux T., Humberset L., Ridremont T. & Arnaud B. (2022). Modeling and optimization of the French and European electricity mix 2020-2060; Available from
  16. Denholm P., Arent D.J., Baldwin S.F., Bilello D.E., Brinkman G.L., Cochran J.M., Cole W.J., Frew B., Gevorgian V., Heeter J., Hodge B.-M.S., Kroposki B., Mai T., O’Malley M.J., Palmintier B., Steinberg D. & Zhang Y. (2021). The challenges of achieving a 100% renewable electricity system in the United States. Joule, 5 (6), 1331–1352;
  17. Ezzahid E. & Icharmouhene R. (2021). Le mix électrique optimal au Maroc; Available from
  18. Foley A.M., Ó Gallachóir B.P., Hur J., Baldick R. & McKeogh E.J. (2010). A strategic review of electricity systems models. Energy, 35 (12), 4522–4530;
  19. Fuso Nerini F., Tomei J., To L.S., Bisaga I., Parikh P., Black M., Borrion A., Spataru C., Castán Broto V., Anandarajah G., Milligan B. & Mulugetta Y. (2018). Mapping synergies and trade-offs between energy and the Sustainable Development Goals. Nature Energy, 3 (1), 10–15;
  20. Gardumi F., Welsch M., Howells M. & Colombo E. (2019). Representation of Balancing Options for Variable Renewables in Long-Term Energy System Models: An Application to OSeMOSYS. Energies, 12 (12), 2366;
  21. Guenoukpati A., Salami A.A., Kodjo M.K. & Napo K. (2020). Estimating Weibull Parameters for Wind Energy Applications using Seven Numerical Methods: Case studies of three costal sites in West Africa. International Journal of Renewable Energy Development, 9 (2), 217–226;
  22. Hansen K., Mathiesen B.V. & Skov I.R. (2019). Full energy system transition towards 100% renewable energy in Germany in 2050. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 102, 1–13;
  23. Herbert A.-S., Azzaro-Pantel C. & Le Boulch D. (2016). A typology for world electricity mix: Application for inventories in Consequential LCA (CLCA). Sustainable Production and Consumption, 8, 93–107;
  24. Horowitz C.A. (2016). Paris Agreement. International Legal Materials, 55 (4), 740–755;
  25. Howells M., Rogner H., Strachan N., Heaps C., Huntington H., Kypreos S., Hughes A., Silveira S., DeCarolis J., Bazillian M. & Roehrl A. (2011). OSeMOSYS: The Open Source Energy Modeling System: An introduction to its ethos, structure and development. Energy Policy, 39 (10), 5850–5870;
  26. IEA I.E.A. (2022). Global Energy Review: CO2 Emissions in 2021, Global emissions rebound sharply to highest ever level; Available from [Accessed 28 Jan. 2023]
  27. International Energy Agency (IEA), International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), United Nations Statistics Division (UNSD), World Bank & World Health Organization (WHO) (2022). Tracking SDG7, The Energy Progress Report 2022; Available from
  28. IRENA (2021). IRENA Renewable Readiness Assessment: Paraguay; Available from
  29. Kansongue N., Njuguna J. & Vertigans S. (2022). An assessment of renewable energy development in energy mix for Togo. International Journal of Sustainable Energy, 41 (8), 1037–1056;
  30. KFW, GIZ, & IRENA (2020). La transition vers les énergies renouvelables en Afrique : Renforcer l’accès, la résilience et la prospérité; Available from
  31. Kitegi M.S.P., Lare Y. & Coulibaly O. (2022). Potential for Green Hydrogen Production from Biomass, Solar and Wind in Togo. Smart Grid and Renewable Energy, 13 (2), 17–27;
  32. Kyriakopoulos G.L. & Arabatzis G. (2016). Electrical energy storage systems in electricity generation: Energy policies, innovative technologies, and regulatory regimes. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 56, 1044–1067;
  33. Kyriakopoulos G.L., Arabatzis G., Tsialis P. & Ioannou K. (2018). Electricity consumption and RES plants in Greece: Typologies of regional units. Renewable Energy, 127, 134–144;
  34. Lima M.A., Mendes L.F.R., Mothé G.A., Linhares F.G., de Castro M.P.P., da Silva M.G. & Sthel M.S. (2020). Renewable energy in reducing greenhouse gas emissions: Reaching the goals of the Paris agreement in Brazil. Environmental Development, 33, 100504;
  35. Lipp J. (2007). Lessons for effective renewable electricity policy from Denmark, Germany and the United Kingdom. Energy Policy, 35 (11), 5481–5495;
  36. Lu Y., Khan Z.A., Alvarez-Alvarado M.S., Zhang Y., Huang Z. & Imran M. (2020). A Critical Review of Sustainable Energy Policies for the Promotion of Renewable Energy Sources. Sustainability, 12 (12), 5078;
  37. Ministère de l’environnement, du développement durable et de la protection de la nature, Agence nationale de gestion de l’environnement A. & Projet d’amélioration du système d’information environnementale du Togo P. (2020). Résume du premier rapport sur l’état de l’environnement du Togo (REET) à l’ intention des décideurs; Available from
  38. Ministère des Mines et de l’Energie, CEREEC & SE4ALL (2015). Plan d’Actions National des Energies Renouvelables (PANER); Available from
  39. Nguyen H.P., Nguyen P.Q.P. & Nguyen T.P. (2022). Green Port Strategies in Developed Coastal Countries as Useful Lessons for the Path of Sustainable Development: A case study in Vietnam. International Journal of Renewable Energy Development, 11 (4), 950–962;
  40. Ntanos S., Skordoulis M., Kyriakopoulos G., Arabatzis G., Chalikias M., Galatsidas S., Batzios A. & Katsarou A. (2018). Renewable Energy and Economic Growth: Evidence from European Countries. Sustainability, 10 (8), 2626;
  41. Patchali T.E., Oyewola O.M., Ajide O.O., Matthew O.J., Salau T.A.O. & Adaramola M.S. (2022). Assessment of global solar radiation estimates across different regions of Togo, West Africa. Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics, 134 (2), 26;
  42. Prognos A.G., Schlesinger M., Dietmar P.D. & Lutz C. (2010). Energieszenarien für ein Energiekonzept der Bundesregierung; Available from,+Ausgabe+8-+2010.pdf
  43. Quevedo J. & Moya I.H. (2022). Modeling of the dominican republic energy systems with OSeMOSYS to assess alternative scenarios for the expansion of renewable energy sources. Energy Nexus, 6, 100075;
  44. Ritchie H., Roser M. & Rosado P. (2022). South Africa: Energy Country Profile; Available from
  45. Salami A.A., Ajavon A.S.A., Kodjo M.K. & Bedja K.-S. (2016). Evaluation of wind potential for an optimum choice of wind turbine generator on the sites of Lomé, Accra, and Cotonou located in the gulf of Guinea. International Journal of Renewable Energy Development, 5 (3), 211–223;
  46. Salami A.A., Ouedraogo S., Kodjoa K.M. & Ajavona A.S.A. (2022). Influence of the Random Data Sampling in Estimation of Wind Speed Resource: Case Study. International Journal of Renewable Energy Development, 11 (1), 133–143;
  47. Salkuti S.R. (2021). Energy storage and electric vehicles: technology, operation, challenges, and cost-benefit analysis. International Journal of Advanced Computer Science and Applications, 12 (4);
  48. Skjærseth J.B. & Rosendal K. (2022). Implementing the EU renewable energy directive in Norway: from Tailwind to Headwind. Environmental Politics, 0 (0), 1–22;
  49. Souza N.R.D. de, Souza A., Ferreira Chagas M., Hernandes T.A.D. & Cavalett O. (2022). Addressing the contributions of electricity from biomass in Brazil in the context of the Sustainable Development Goals using life cycle assessment methods. Journal of Industrial Ecology, 26 (3), 980–995;
  50. Sovacool B.K. (2008). Valuing the greenhouse gas emissions from nuclear power: A critical survey. Energy Policy, 36 (8), 2950–2963;
  51. Stefanelli R.D., Walker C., Kornelsen D., Lewis D., Martin D.H., Masuda J., Richmond C.A.M., Root E., Tait Neufeld H. & Castleden H. (2019). Renewable energy and energy autonomy: how Indigenous peoples in Canada are shaping an energy future. Environmental Reviews, 27 (1), 95–105;
  52. Swain R.B. & Karimu A. (2020). Renewable electricity and sustainable development goals in the EU. World Development, 125, 104693;
  53. Syromyatnikov D., Druzyanova V., Beloglazov A., Bakshtanin A. & Matveeva T. (2021). Evaluation of the Economic Profitability of Using Renewable Energy Sources in Agro-Industrial Companies. International Journal of Renewable Energy Development, 10 (4), 827–837;
  54. Thapar S., Sharma S. & Verma A. (2016). Economic and environmental effectiveness of renewable energy policy instruments: Best practices from India. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 66, 487–498;
  55. United Nations (2021). Rapport sur les objectifs de développement durable 2021; Available from
  56. Washburn C. & Pablo-Romero M. (2019). Measures to promote renewable energies for electricity generation in Latin American countries. Energy Policy, 128, 212–222;
  57. World Bank (2022). Accès à l’électricité (% de la population) - Togo | Data; Available from
  58. Wright J.G., Bischof-Niemz T., Calitz J.R., Mushwana C. & van Heerden R. (2019). Long-term electricity sector expansion planning: A unique opportunity for a least cost energy transition in South Africa. Renewable Energy Focus, 30, 21–45;
  59. Wüstenhagen R. & Bilharz M. (2006). Green energy market development in Germany: effective public policy and emerging customer demand. Energy Policy, 34 (13), 1681–1696;
  60. Yeganyan R. (2021). Modelling pathways to energy security in Armenia’s electricity sector using OSeMOSYS (OpenSource Energy Modelling System); Available from
  61. Zhong J., Bollen M. & Rönnberg S. (2021). Towards a 100% renewable energy electricity generation system in Sweden. Renewable Energy, 171, 812–824;

Last update:

No citation recorded.

Last update: 2024-06-12 22:20:46

No citation recorded.