DOI: https://doi.org/10.14710/jil.24.2.328-340

Transformasi Ruang dan Lingkungan: Prediksi Tutupan Lahan di Kawasan Urban Kota Palangka Raya

1Universitas Palangka Raya, Jl.Yos Sudarso, Palangka Raya, Indonesia, Indonesia

2Magister Perencanaan Wilayah dan Kota, Universitas Palangka Raya, Indonesia

3Jurusan Kehutanan, Universitas Palangka Raya, Indonesia, Indonesia

4 Pusat Pengembangan Infrastruktur Data Spasial, Universitas Lambung Mangkurat,, Indonesia

5 Dinas Pekerjaan Umum dan Penataan Ruang, Kabupaten Pulang Pisau, Indonesia

6 KPH Kotawaringin Barat, Dinas Kehutanan, Provinsi Kalimantan Tengah, Indonesia

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Received: 15 May 2025; Revised: 6 Jun 2026; Accepted: 25 Jun 2026; Available online: 16 Jul 2026; Published: 18 Jul 2026.
Editor(s): Budi Warsito

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Abstract

Perubahan tutupan lahan akibat urbanisasi merupakan tantangan utama dalam pengelolaan lingkungan perkotaan karena berpotensi menurunkan kualitas ekosistem dan meningkatkan tekanan terhadap sumber daya alam. Penelitian ini bertujuan menganalisis perubahan tutupan lahan periode 2017–2024 serta memprediksi kondisi tutupan lahan tahun 2031 di Kecamatan Pahandut, Kota Palangka Raya. Kebaruan penelitian ini terletak pada pemanfaatan citra resolusi tinggi Planet Labs yang dikombinasikan dengan model prediksi spasial MOLUSCE (Modules for Land Use Change Evaluation) untuk mendukung perencanaan tata ruang berbasis data spasial pada kawasan urban yang berkembang pesat. Prediksi dilakukan menggunakan pendekatan Markov Chain dan Cellular Automata (CA) dengan mempertimbangkan faktor pendorong perubahan lahan berupa topografi, jaringan jalan, sungai, pusat pemerintahan, dan sebaran bangunan. Hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa selama periode 2017–2024 terjadi peningkatan luas hutan dan lahan terbangun, sementara lahan semak, lahan terbuka, dan badan air mengalami penurunan. Prediksi tahun 2031 mengindikasikan berlanjutnya ekspansi kawasan terbangun yang berpotensi meningkatkan tekanan terhadap kawasan hutan, lahan terbuka, dan ekosistem perairan. Hasil validasi menunjukkan bahwa model memiliki tingkat akurasi yang baik dengan nilai overall correctness sebesar 82,97% dan Kappa Overall sebesar 0,74841, sehingga mampu merepresentasikan dinamika perubahan tutupan lahan secara kuantitatif maupun spasial. Temuan penelitian menegaskan pentingnya pengendalian urbanisasi, perlindungan kawasan hijau, dan konservasi sumber daya air dalam mendukung pembangunan perkotaan yang berkelanjutan. Informasi spasial prediktif yang dihasilkan dapat menjadi dasar dalam penyusunan kebijakan tata ruang dan pengelolaan lingkungan di Kota Palangka Raya.

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Keywords: Prediksi Tutupan Lahan; Urbanisasi Spasial; Tata Ruang Adaptif; Alih Fungsi Lahan; Tata Guna Lahan Berkelanjutan

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