DOI: https://doi.org/10.14710/jil.24.4.1010-1021

Dinamika Debit Mata Air dalam Menghadapi Perubahan Iklim: Identifikasi Kerentanan dan Kerangka Konservasi Berkelanjutan

1Department of Environmental Engineering, Faculty of Mineral and Energy Technology, UPN "Veteran" Yogyakarta, JL. SWK 104 Condong Catur, Depok, Sleman, D.I. Yogyakarta, Indonesia

2Department of Environmental Engineering, Faculty of Mineral and Energy Technology, Universitas Pembangunan Nasional Veteran Yogyakarta, JL. SWK 104 Condong Catur, Depok, Sleman, D.I. Yogyakarta, Indonesia

Received: 14 Jan 2026; Revised: 26 Aug 2026; Accepted: 28 Aug 2026; Available online: 30 Aug 2026; Published: 1 Sep 2026.
Editor(s): Budi Warsito

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Abstract
Mata air rentan terhadap perubahan iklim. Penelitian ini menganalisis dinamika debit dua mata air pada akuifer kontras, yaitu Cikahuripan di Karawang (celah-retakan muda, responsif) dan sistem Kali Nyetuk-Njero Uwik di Kulon Progo (batuan kompak, stabil), untuk mengidentifikasi kerentanan air pada 2024-2053. Metode mencakup skoring daerah imbuhan, proyeksi curah hujan dengan Statistical Downscaling (SDSM) skenario RCP 4.5, dan simulasi neraca air. Cikahuripan berinfiltrasi tinggi namun rentan fluktuasi antartahun, sedangkan Kali Nyetuk-Njero Uwik stabil tetapi berimbuhan terbatas. Berdasarkan kerentanan itu disusun kerangka konservasi berbasis alam spesifik lokasi dan rekomendasi kebijakan empat pilar untuk mendukung SDG 6 tentang air bersih dan sanitasi.
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Keywords: mata air; perubahan iklim; kerentanan akuifer; solusi berbasis alam; kebijakan terintegrasi

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Section: Research Article
Language : ID
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