PERAMALAN BEBAN LISTRIK DAERAH ISTIMEWA YOGYAKARTA DENGAN METODE SINGULAR SPECTRUM ANALYSIS (SSA)

*Herni Utami  -  Departemen Matematika, FMIPA, Universitas Gadjah Mada, Indonesia
Yunita Wulan Sari  -  Departemen Matematika, FMIPA, Universitas Gadjah Mada, Indonesia
Subanar Subanar  -  Departemen Matematika, FMIPA, Universitas Gadjah Mada, Indonesia
Abdurakhman Abdurakhman  -  Departemen Matematika, FMIPA, Universitas Gadjah Mada, Indonesia
Gunardi Gunardi  -  Departemen Matematika, FMIPA, Universitas Gadjah Mada, Indonesia
Received: 24 Nov 2018; Published: 30 Dec 2019.
Open Access Copyright (c) 2019 MEDIA STATISTIKA
License URL: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0

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Section: Articles
Language: ID;EN
Statistics: 320 279
Abstract
This paper will study forecasting model for electricity demand in Yogyakarta and forecast it for 2019 until 2024. Usually, electricity demand data contain seasonal. We propose Singular Spectral Analysis-Linear Recurrent Formula (SSA-LRF) method. The SSA process consists of decomposing a time series for signal extraction and then reconstructing a less noisy series which is used for forecasting. The SSA-LRF method will be used to forecast h-step ahead. In this study, we use monthly electricity demand in Yogyakarta for 11 year (2008 to 2018). The forecasting results indicates that the forecast using window length of L=26 have good performance with MAPE of 1.9%.
Keywords: Forecasting model; Singular Spectral Analysis; Linear Recurrent Formula; Electricity demand

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