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FORECASTING COVID-19 IN INDONESIA WITH VARIOUS TIME SERIES MODELS

*Gumgum Darmawan  -  Department of Mathematics, Universitas Gadjah Mada, Indonesia
Dedi Rosadi  -  Department of Mathematics, Universitas Gadjah Mada, Indonesia
Budi Nurani Ruchjana  -  Department of Mathematics, Universitas Padjajaran, Indonesia
Resa Septiani Pontoh  -  Department of Statistics, Universitas Padjajaran, Indonesia
Asrirawan Asrirawan  -  Universitas Sulawesi Barat, Indonesia
Wirawan Setialaksana  -  Universitas Negeri Makassar, Indonesia
Open Access Copyright (c) 2022 MEDIA STATISTIKA under http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0.

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Abstract
In this study, Covid-19 modeling in Indonesia is carried out using a time series model. The time series model used is the time series model for discrete data. These models consist of Feedforward Neural Network (FFNN), Error, Trend, and Seasonal (ETS), Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA), Fuzzy Time Series (FTS), Generalized Autoregression Moving Average (GARMA), and Bayesian Time Series. Based on the results of forecast accuracy calculation using MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error) as model evaluation for confirmed data, the most accurate case models is the bayesian model of 0.04%, while all recovered cases yield MAPE 0.05%, except for FTS = 0.06%. For data for death cases SSA and Bayesian Models, the best with MAPE is 0.07%.
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Keywords: Covid-19; Singular Spectrum Analysis; FFNN; GARMA; FTS

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