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An Application of Cellular Automata (CA) and Markov Chain (MC) Model in Urban Growth Prediction: A case of Surat City, Gujarat, India

*Kaushikkumar Prafulbhai Sheladiya orcid  -  Urban Planning Section, Department of Civil Engineering, S. V. National Institute of Technology,Surat,Gujarat,India-395007, India
Chetan R. Patel  -  Urban Planning Section, Department of Civil Engineering, S. V. National Institute of Technology,Surat,Gujarat,India-395007, India

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The main purpose of this study is to detect land use land cover change for 1990-2000, 2000-2010, and 2010-2020 using multispectral Landsat images as well as to simulate and predict urban growth of Surat city using Cellular Automata-based Markov Chain Model. Maximum likelihood supervise classification was used to generate LULC maps of the years 1990,2000,2010, and 2020 and the overall accuracy of these maps were 90%, 95%, 91.25%, and 96.25%, respectively. Two transition rules were commuted to predict the LULC of 2010 and 2020. For validation of these LULC maps, the Area Under Characteristics curve was used, and these maps' accuracy was 95.30% and 86.90%. This validation predicted LULC maps for the years 2035 and 2050. Transition rules of 2010-2035 showed that there will be a probability that 36.33% of vegetation area and 40.27% of the vacant land area will be transited into built-up by the year 2035, and it will be 49.20 % of the total area. Also, 57.77% of the vegetation area and 60.24% of the built-up area will be transformed into urban areas by the year 2050, almost 62.60 %. Analysis of LULC maps 2035 and 2050 exhibits that there will be abundant growth in all directions except the South Zone and Southwest Zone. Therefore, this study helps urban planners and decision-makers decide what to retain, where to plan for new development and type of development, what to connect, and what to protect in coming years.

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Keywords: Cellular Automata(CA); Markov Chain(MC); Urban Growth Modelling; Geographic Information System; Surat City

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