DOI: https://doi.org/10.14710/geoplanning.10.1.55-72

Assessing Vulnerability of Agriculture to Drought in East Java, Indonesia: Application of GIS and AHP

*Heri Mulyanti orcid  -  Doctoral Program of Environmental Science, Universitas Diponegoro, Jl. Imam Bardjo, SH, Semarang, Indonesia, 50241, Indonesia
Istadi Istadi orcid scopus publons  -  Department of Chemical Engineering, Universitas Diponegoro, Jl. Prof. Sudarto, SH, Tembalang, Semarang, Indonesia 50275, Indonesia
Rahmat Gernowo orcid scopus  -  Department of Physics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universitas Diponegoro, Jl. Prof. Sudarto, SH, Tembalang, Semarang, Indonesia 50275, Indonesia

Citation Format:
Abstract

Drought known as ‘silent killer’—unpredictable slow-moving hazard which cause severe damage to people and environment. Since agriculture is the first and foremost sector affected by drought, the risk of crop failure can be minimized by reducing vulnerability. Climate patterns can be considered as systematic conditions which are capable of assigning sensitivity regions to drought. Here, the study employs Oldeman’s Agro Climatic data as physical vulnerability indicator to assess and monitor the vulnerability of agriculture system to drought in East Java. The study used long-term monthly rainfall observation data to generate climatic map accompanied with socio-economic indicators to assess vulnerability of region to drought. Spatial distribution of vulnerability was mapped using Geographic Information Systems (GIS) combined with Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). The results show there are five categories of vulnerability to drought: very high, high, moderate, low, and very low based on standardized index. Madura Island, particularly Bangkalan, Sampang, and Sumenep considered as most vulnerable region to drought. In addition, most regions in the north plain of East Java, including Tuban, Lamongan, and Gresik categorized as highly vulnerable to drought. Factors affecting vulnerability are mostly related to drier climate which affect acreage and availability of irrigation. The socio-economic factors likewise smallholder farmers and poverty contribute to rising vulnerability level. South part of East Java, particularly Tulungagung and Blitar Regency was least vulnerable because of appropriate climate which induced to acreage of irrigated land. The study emphasizes the utilizing of Oldeman climate pattern as primary indicator in determining vulnerable regions. Smallholder farmers and poverty causing vulnerability in agriculture emerged as priority for further study. The results can provide new insights into drought management for most vulnerable regions by considering local climatic characteristics.

Fulltext View|Download
Keywords: Drought Vulnerability; Agriculture; East Java; GIS; AHP

Article Metrics:

Article Info
Section: Original Research
Language : EN
Recent articles
An Application of Cellular Automata (CA) and Markov Chain (MC) Model in Urban Growth Prediction: A case of Surat City, Gujarat, India Assessing Vulnerability of Agriculture to Drought in East Java, Indonesia: Application of GIS and AHP Shoreline Dynamics in the Very Small Islands of Karimunjawa – Indonesia: A Preliminary Study More recent articles
Most cited articles
EVALUASI KESESUAIAN LOKASI DAN JANGKAUAN PELAYANAN SEKOLAH MENENGAH UMUM DI KECAMATAN KEBAKKRAMAT KABUPATEN KARANGANYAR GIS-BASED LANDSLIDE SUSCEPTIBILITY ASSESSMENT AND FACTOR EFFECT ANALYSIS BY CERTAINTY FACTOR IN UPSTREAM OF JENEBERANG RIVER, INDONESIA SUBAK LAND INFORMATION SYSTEM BASED ON REMOTE SENSING AND GEOGRAPHIC INFORMATION SYSTEM IN DENPASAR CITY SATELLITE-DERIVED BATHYMETRY USING RANDOM FOREST ALGORITHM AND WORLDVIEW-2 IMAGERY SLUM REVITALIZING PLAN OF BAGHDADIYAH BY SPATIAL RE-MODELING CONFIGURATION More cited articles

  1. Adger, W. N. (1995). Approaches to Vulnerability to Climate Change. CSERGE GEC 96-05, 1–63.

  2. Aeschbach-Hertig, W., & Gleeson, T. (2012). Regional strategies for the accelerating global problem of groundwater depletion. Nature Geoscience, 853-861.

  3. Aldrian, E., & Djamil, Y. S. (2008). Spatio-temporal climatic change of rainfall in East Java Indonesia. International Journal of Climatology, 28(4), 435–448. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1543">[Crossref]

  4. Alharbi, R. S., Nath, S., Faizan, O. M., Hasan, M. S. U., Alam, S., Khan, M. A., Bakshi, S., Sahana, M., & Saif, M.

  5. Ault, T. R., Mankin, J. S., Cook, B. I., & Smerdon, J. E. (2016). Relative impacts of mitigation, temperature, and precipitation on 21st-century megadrought risk in the American Southwest. Science Advances, 2(10), e1600873.

  6. M. (2022). Assessment of Drought vulnerability through an integrated approach using AHP and Geoinformatics in the Kangsabati River Basin. Journal of King Saud University - Science, 34(8). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jksus.2022.102332">[Crossref]

  7. Arifah, Salman, D., Yassi, A., & Demmallino, E. B. (2022). Livelihood vulnerability of smallholder farmers to climate change: A comparative analysis based on irrigation access in South Sulawesi, Indonesia. Regional Sustainability, 3(3), 244–253. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.regsus.2022.10.002">[Crossref]

  8. BPS (2022). Luas Panen dan Produksi Padi di Provinsi Jawa Timur 2021 Hasil Kegiatan Pendataan Statistik Pertanian Tanaman Pangan Terintegrasi dengan Metode Kerangka Sampel Area. Jakarta: BPS. https://jatim.bps.go.id/publication/2022/09/08/589103545c0ee9d05b9c0743/luas-panen-dan-produksi-padi-di-provinsi-jawa-timur-2021-hasil-kegiatan-pandataan-statistik-pertanian-tanaman-pangan-terintegrasi-dengan-metode-kerangka-sampel-area.html

  9. Blauhut, V., Stahl, K., Stagge, J. H., Tallaksen, L. M., Stefano, L. de, & Vogt, J. (2016). Estimating drought risk across Europe from reported drought impacts, drought indices, and vulnerability factors. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 20(7), 2779–2800. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-2779-2016">[Crossref]

  10. Boer, R., & Subbiah, A. R. (2005). Agricultural Drought in Indonesia. In V. K. Boken, A. P. Cracknell, & R. L. Heathcote (Eds.), Monitoring and Predicting Agricultural Drought: A Global Study (pp. 330–344). Oxford University Press, Inc.

  11. Brooks, N. (2003). Vulnerability, risk and adaptation: A conceptual framework. Norwich: Tyndall Centre Working Paper No.38.

  12. Brooks, N., Neil Adger, W., & Mick Kelly, P. (2005). The determinants of vulnerability and adaptive capacity at the national level and the implications for adaptation. Global Environmental Change, 15(2), 151–163. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2004.12.006">[Crossref]

  13. Brown, J. R., Kluck, D., McNutt, C., & Hayes, M. (2016). Assessing Drought Vulnerability Using a Socioecological Framework. Rangelands, 38(4), 162–168. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rala.2016.06.007">[Crossref]

  14. Collins, K., Hannaford, J., Svoboda, M., Knutson, C., Wall, N., Bernadt, T., Crossman, N., Overton, I., Acreman, M., Bachmair, S., & Stahl, K. (2016). Stakeholder coinquiries on drought impacts, monitoring, and early warning systems. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 97(11), ES217–ES220. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0185.1">[Crossref]

  15. Cruz, M. G., Hernandez, E. A., & Uddameri, V. (2021). Vulnerability assessment of agricultural production systems to drought stresses using robustness measures. Scientific Reports, 11(1). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-98829-5">[Crossref[

  16. Cutter, S. L., & Finch, C. (2008). Temporal and spatial changes in social vulnerability to natural hazards. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 105(7), 2301-2306. http://www.pnas.orgcgidoi10.1073pnas.0710375105">www.pnas.orgcgidoi10.1073pnas.0710375105 

  17. Donatti, C. I., Harvey, C. A., Martinez-Rodriguez, M. R., Vignola, R., & Rodriguez, C. M. (2019). Vulnerability of smallholder farmers to climate change in Central America and Mexico: current knowledge and research gaps. Climate and Development, 11 (3): 264–286. https://doi.org/10.1080/17565529.2018.1442796">[Crossref]

  18. Estoque, R. C., Ishtiaque, A., Parajuli, J., Athukorala, D., Rabby, Y. W., & Ooba, M. (2023). Has the IPCC’s revised vulnerability concept been well adopted? Ambio, 52(2), 376–389). https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-022-01806-z">[Crossref]

  19. Fu, R., Yin, L., Li, W., Arias, P. A., Dickinson, R. E., Huang, L., Chakraborty, S., Fernandes, K., Liebmann, B., Fisher, R., & Myneni, R. B. (2013). Increased dry-season length over southern Amazonia in recent decades and its implication for future climate projection. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 110(45), 18110–18115. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1302584110">[Crossref]

  20. Goepel, K. D. (2013). A new AHP Excel template with multiple inputs. Proceedings of International Symposium on the Analytic Hierarchy Process, Kuala Lumput 2013. https://doi.org/10.13022/isahp.y2013.047">[Crossref]

  21. Hagenlocher, M., Meza, I., Anderson, C. C., Min, A., Renaud, F. G., Walz, Y., Siebert, S., & Sebesvari, Z. (2019). Drought vulnerability and risk assessments: State of the art, persistent gaps, and research agenda. Environmental Research Letters, 14(8), 083002. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab225d">[Crossref]

  22. Hall, J. W., & Leng, G. (2019). Can we calculate drought risk… and do we need to? Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Water, 6(4). https://doi.org/10.1002/wat2.1349">[Crosref]

  23. Harvey, C. A., Rakotobe, Z. L., Rao, N. S., Dave, R., Razafimahatratra, H., Rabarijohn, R. H., Rajaofara, H., & MacKinnon, J. L. (2014). Extreme vulnerability of smallholder farmers to agricultural risks and climate change in Madagascar. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 369(1639). https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2013.0089">[Crossref]

  24. IPCC. (2014). In Core Writing Team, R. K. Pachauri, & L. A. Meyers (Eds.), Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (p. 151). IPCC. https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/05/SYR_AR5_FINAL_full_wcover.pdf">  

  25. Jamshidi, O., Asadi, A., Kalantari, K., Azadi, H., & Scheffran, J. (2019). Vulnerability to climate change of smallholder farmers in the Hamadan province, Iran. Climate Risk Management, 23, 146–159. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2018.06.002">[Crossref]

  26. Keil, A., Teufel, N., Gunawan, D., & Leemhuis, C. (2009). Vulnerability of smallholder farmers to ENSO-related drought in Indonesia. Climate Research, 38(2), 155–169. https://doi.org/10.3354/cr00778">[Crossref]

  27. Kelman, I., Gaillard, J. C., Lewis, J., & Mercer, J. (2016). Learning from the history of disaster vulnerability and resilience research and practice for climate change. Natural Hazards, 82, 129–143. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-016-2294-0">[Crossref]

  28. King, A. D., Karoly, D. J., & Oldenborgh, G. J. van. (2016). Climate Change and El Niño Increase Likelihood of Indonesian Heat and Drought. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 97(12), S113–S117. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0164.1">[Crossref]

  29. Kundu, A., Dutta, D., Patel, N. R., Denis, D. M., & Chattoraj, K. K. (2021). Evaluation of Socio-Economic Drought Risk over Bundelkhand Region of India using Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Geo-Spatial Techniques. Journal of the Indian Society of Remote Sensing, 49(6), 1365–1377. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12524-021-01306-9">[Crossref]

  30. Lybbert, T. J., & Carter, M. R. (2013). Bundling Drought Tolerance & Index Insurance to Reduce Rural Household Vulnerability to Drought.  http://www.un.org/News/Press/docs/2012/gaef3352.doc.htm

  31. Morton, J. F. (2007). The impact of climate change on smallholder and subsistence agriculture. PNAS, 104(50), 19680-19685.  https://www.pnas.org/cgi/doi/10.1073/pnas.0701855104">  

  32. Murthy, C. S., Yadav, M., Mohammed Ahamed, J., Laxman, B., Prawasi, R., Sesha Sai, M. V. R., & Hooda, R. S. (2015). A study on agricultural drought vulnerability at disaggregated level in a highly irrigated and intensely cropped state of India. Environmental Monitoring and Assessment, 187(3). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-015-4296-x">[Crossref]

  33. Mwadzingeni, L., Mugandani, R., & Mafongoya, P. L. (2022). Socio-demographic, institutional and governance factors influencing adaptive capacity of smallholder irrigators in Zimbabwe. PLoS ONE, 17(8). https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0273648">[Crossref]

  34. Oldeman, L. R. (1975). Agro-Climatic map of Java and Madura scale 1:1,000,000. Bogor: Central Research Institute of Agricultural Bogor.

  35. Oldeman, L. R., & Frere, M. (1982). A Study of the Agroclimatology of the Humid Tropics of South-East Asia. Geneva: WMO.

  36. Rahmi, K. I. N., & Dimyati, M. (2021). Remote sensing and gis application for monitoring drought vulnerability in Indonesia: A review. Bulletin of Electrical Engineering and Informatics, 10(6), 3507–3518. https://doi.org/10.11591/eei.v10i6.3249">[Crossref]

  37. Rodysill, J. R., Russell, J. M., Crausbay, S. D., Bijaksana, S., Vuille, M., Edwards, R. L., & Cheng, H. (2013). A severe drought during the last millennium in East Java, Indonesia. Quaternary Science Reviews, 80, 102–111. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2013.09.005">[Crossref]

  38. Saaty, R. W. (1987). The Analytic Hierarchy Process-What It is and How It Is Used. Mathl Modelling, 9(5), 161-176.

  39. Sharma, J., & Ravindranath, N. H. (2019). Applying IPCC 2014 framework for hazard-specific vulnerability assessment under climate change. In Environmental Research Communications, 1(5), 051004. https://doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/ab24ed">[Crossref]

  40. Siswanto and Supari. (2015). Rainfall changes over Java Island, Indonesia. 5(14). http://www.iiste.org">www.iiste.org

  41. Suroso, N., Ardiansyah, D. & Aldrian, E. (2021). Drought detection in Java Island based on Standardized Precipitation and Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). Journal of Water and Climate Change, 12(6), 2734–2752. https://doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2021.022">[Crossref]

  42. Thao N. T. T., Khoi D. N., Xuan T. T., & Tychon B. (2019). Assessment of Livelihood Vulnerability to Drought: A Case Study in Dak Nong Province, Vietnam. International Journal of Disaster Risk Science, 10(4), 604–615. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13753-019-00230-4">[Crossref]

  43. Trisasongko, B. H., Panuju, D. R., Harimurti, Ramly, A. F., & Subroto, H. (2016). Rapid assessment of agriculture vulnerability to drought using GIS. International Journal of Technology, 7(1), 114–122. https://doi.org/10.14716/ijtech.v7i1.303">[Crossref]

  44. Wahab, M. I., Sudibyakto, Gunadi, S., & Suratman. (2009). Change in Spatial and Temporal Characteristics of Rainfall in East Java Province in Relation to Global Climate Change. J.Agromet, 23(1), 29–44.

  45. Wang, Y., Zhao, W., Zhang, Q., & Yao, Y. bi. (2019). Characteristics of drought vulnerability for maize in the eastern part of Northwest China. Scientific Reports, 9(1). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-37362-4">[Crossref]

  46. Ward, P. S., & Makhija, S. (2018). New modalities for managing drought risk in rainfed agriculture: Evidence from a discrete choice experiment in Odisha, India. World Development, 107, 163–175. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2018.03.002">[Crossref]

  47. Wilhelmi, O. v, & Wilhite, D. A. (2002). Assessing Vulnerability to Agricultural Drought: A Nebraska Case Study (Vol. 25). https://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtfacpub">

  48. Wilhite, D. A., & Glantz, M. H. (1985). Understanding the Drought Phenomenon: The Role of Definitions. Water International.

  49. Wilhite, D. A. (2015). Drought-Management Policies and Preparedness Plans: Changing the Paradigm from Crisis to Risk Management. In Land Restoration: Reclaiming Landscapes for a Sustainable Future (pp. 442–462). Elsevier Inc. https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-801231-4.00007-0">[Crossref]

  50. Ye, H. (2018). Changes in duration of dry and wet spells associated with air temperatures in Russia. Environmental Research Letters, 13(3). https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aaae0d">[Crossref]

  51. Zarafshani, K., Sharafi, L., Azadi, H., & van Passel, S. (2016). Vulnerability assessment models to drought: Toward a conceptual framework. Sustainability, 8(6), 588. https://doi.org/10.3390/su8060588">[Crossref]

  52.  


Last update:

  1. An insight from homogeneity testing of long-term rainfall datasets over East Java, Indonesia

    Heri Mulyanti, Istadi, Rahmat Gernowo. Journal of Emerging Science and Engineering, 2 (2), 2024. doi: 10.61435/jese.2024.e23

Last update: 2024-11-21 05:01:19

No citation recorded.