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Variability of Ocean Circulation and Water Mass Characteristics in Celebes Sea during ENSO Phase: A Numerical Modelling Approach

1Department of Marine Science, Faculty of Fisheries and Marine Sciences, Jenderal Soedirman University, Indonesia

2College of Oceanography and Ecological Science, Shanghai Ocean University, China

3Low Latitude Climate Variability, MARUM, University of Bremen, Germany

Received: 25 Apr 2026; Revised: 7 Jun 2026; Accepted: 26 Jun 2026; Available online: 1 Sep 2026; Published: 10 Sep 2026.

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Abstract

A three-dimensional regional ocean circulation simulation was conducted in the Celebes Sea using the Coastal and Regional Ocean Community Model (CROCO) with a spatial resolution of 1/16°. The simulation covered the period from 2015 to 2020, encompassing several contrasting El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions. These included the strong El Niño event in 2015, the weak La Niña event in 2018, and the moderate La Niña event in 2020. Model performance was evaluated by comparing the simulation results with Argo observations and satellite altimetry data. The comparison showed a good agreement between the model and observations, with correlation coefficients ranging from 0.70 to 0.99. The results indicated that ENSO events substantially influenced ocean circulation and water mass characteristics in the Celebes Sea. During the 2015 El Niño event, seasonal current velocities generally weakened, while the surrounding waters became cooler and more saline. In contrast, during the 2018 and 2020 La Niña events, current velocities tended to increase, particularly within the thermocline layer. The La Niña conditions were also associated with relatively warmer and fresher waters. These changes were especially evident around the inflow and outflow regions of the Indonesian Throughflow, where variations in water properties and circulation were more pronounced. Overall, the simulation demonstrates that ENSO variability plays an important role in controlling the temporal changes in circulation and water mass properties within the Celebes Sea. The contrasting responses observed during El Niño and La Niña highlight the strong connection between large-scale climate variability and regional oceanographic processes in this important Indonesian marginal sea.

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Keywords: Celebes Sea; ITF; CROCO model; ENSO

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