DOI: https://doi.org/10.14710/jil.23.2.443-451

Prediksi Spasial Deforestasi Kawasan Hutan Taman Nasional Bogani Nani Wartabone Menggunakan Cellular Automata-Artificial Neural Network

1Program Studi Pendidikan Geografi, Universitas Negeri Gorontalo, Gorontalo, Indonesia, Indonesia

2Program Studi Ilmu Lingkungan, Universitas Negeri Gorontalo, Gorontalo, Indonesia, Indonesia

Received: 4 Jun 2024; Revised: 11 Sep 2024; Accepted: 9 Jan 2025; Available online: 15 Mar 2025; Published: 31 Mar 2025.
Editor(s): Budi Warsito

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Abstract

Deforestasi adalah konversi permanen area berhutan menjadi area tidak berhutan akibat aktivitas manusia. Penelitian ini mengkaji perubahan tutupan hutan antara tahun 2002, 2012, dan 2022, serta memperkirakan tutupan hutan dan tingkat deforestasi pada tahun 2032. Data yang digunakan adalah data perubahan hutan global Hansen dengan resolusi 30 meter, yang mencakup data Tutupan Pohon dan data Tahun Kehilangan. Proyeksi ini menggunakan metode Cellular Automata-Artificial Neural Network (CA-ANN) dengan mempertimbangkan kemiringan lereng, ketinggian, NDVI, dan jarak dari jalan sebagai faktor-faktor pendorong. Deforestasi ditentukan dengan mengurangkan area berhutan tahun awal dengan area berhutan tahun akhir. Selama periode 2002-2012, deforestasi mencapai 3.514,53 hektar (0,12% per tahun) dan selama periode 2012-2022 sebesar 3.064,61 hektar (0,11% per tahun). Total deforestasi selama 20 tahun mencapai 6.579,14 hektar dengan laju 0,12% per tahun. Diperkirakan deforestasi pada periode 2022-2032 akan mencapai 948,43 hektar (0,03% per tahun). Temuan ini diharapkan dapat membantu pengelolaan Taman Nasional Bogani Nani Warbone dalam mengembangkan kebijakan pencegahan deforestasi.

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Keywords: Deforestasi; TNBNW; Global Forest Change; Tutupan Hutan; Cellular Automata
Funding: Wildlife Conservation Society

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