DOI: https://doi.org/10.14710/jil.24.5.1168-1189

Pemetaan Kerawanan Longsor Berbasis Maximum Entropy di Kabupaten Tulungagung

Department of Environmental Geography, Universitas Gadjah Mada, Jl. Kaliurang, Sekip Utara, Bulaksumur Sinduadi Sleman, Sendowo, Sinduadi, Kec. Mlati, Kabupaten Sleman, Daerah Istimewa Yogyakarta 55281, Indonesia

Received: 8 Feb 2026; Revised: 1 Sep 2026; Accepted: 8 Sep 2026; Available online: 29 Sep 2026; Published: 30 Sep 2026.
Editor(s): Budi Warsito

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Abstract

Longsor merupakan salah satu bencana prioritas penanggulangan di Kabupaten Tulungagung karena frekuensinya yang tinggi serta dampak kerugian sosial-ekonomi yang signifikan. Variasi kondisi biofisik dan aktivitas antropogenik di wilayah ini menyebabkan tingkat kerawanan longsor yang beragam. Hingga kini, penerapan metode Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) dalam pemetaan kerawanan longsor di Kabupaten Tulungagung masih terbatas dan belum disertai kajian komputasi yang memadai untuk evaluasi spasial yang andal. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk memetakan dan menganalisis kerawanan longsor menggunakan algoritma MaxEnt, serta meninjau efektivitas upaya mitigasi bencana yang telah diterapkan di Kabupaten Tulungagung. Data yang digunakan meliputi 132 titik kejadian longsor periode 2018–2025 dan 11 faktor pengontrol longsor. Pemodelan dilakukan dengan pembagian data sebesar 75% sebagai data latih dan 25% sebagai data uji. Hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa faktor elevasi, litologi, dan jarak terhadap jalan merupakan kontributor paling signifikan terhadap kejadian longsor. Evaluasi kinerja model menggunakan kurva Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) menghasilkan nilai Area Under the Curve (AUC) sebesar 0,934 yang menunjukkan tingkat akurasi sangat baik. Hasil ini menegaskan bahwa metode MaxEnt efektif dalam memetakan zona kerawanan longsor di Kabupaten Tulungagung. Temuan penelitian ini diharapkan dapat menjadi instrumen penapisan awal pada skala regional dalam perumusan strategi mitigasi bencana berbasis tata ruang yang lebih adaptif guna meminimalkan risiko korban jiwa serta kerugian sosial-ekonomi di masa mendatang.

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Keywords: Kerawanan, longsor, maximum entropy, kabupaten tulungagung
Funding: Universitas Gajah Mada under contract MU123123

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