Risk Analysis of Ship Collision and Modelling of Oil Spill Trajectory Study Case : Dumai Port

Abstract

Dumai Port is an important natural port located in Sumatra, characterized by relatively deep waters that are sheltered from waves and have calm currents due to surrounding islands. The port plays a crucial role in the export of crude palm oil (CPO) and the operations of Pertamina's RU II, which are expected to increase, leading to a rise in ship traffic. Increasing maritime activity raises concerns about potential accidents, such as collisions, necessitating a thorough risk analysis to estimate the frequency of collisions and their possible consequences. To assess the frequency of ship collisions, the IWRAP (Integrated Waterway Risk Assessment Program) was employed, analyzing vessel traffic data over a year alongside the port's bathymetric data. The analysis revealed the total frequency of ship collisions is 0.589766 across various scenarios, including head-on, overtaking, crossing, bending, and merging. The frequency is considered acceptable, as it falls below the threshold of one collision per year. Furthermore, oil spill trajectory modelling was conducted using two types of oil and two wave heights. In the 2000 m³ oil spill modelling at a height of 0.5 m, the crude oil model showed 68.4% still floating, while the product oil model had 41.7% floating. In the 1.5 m modelling, the crude oil model had 29% floating, and the product oil model had 16.2% floating. Notably, significant oil loss in the 1.5 m model occurred due to evaporation and natural dispersion. The results of the oil spill trajectory modelling provide valuable insights for enhancing the accuracy and efficiency of oil spill response strategies.