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SELECTION OF INPUT VARIABLES OF NONLINEAR AUTOREGRESSIVE NEURAL NETWORK MODEL FOR TIME SERIES DATA FORECASTING

*Hermansah Hermansah scopus  -  Mathematics Education Study Program, Riau Kepulauan University, Indonesia
Dedi Rosadi  -  Mathematics Study Program, Gadjah Mada University, Indonesia
Abdurakhman Abdurakhman  -  Mathematics Study Program, Gadjah Mada University, Indonesia
Herni Utami  -  Mathematics Study Program, Gadjah Mada University, Indonesia
Open Access Copyright (c) 2020 MEDIA STATISTIKA under http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0.

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Abstract
NARNN is a type of ANN model consisting of a limited number of parameters and widely used for various applications. This study aims to determine the appropriate NARNN model, for the selection of input variables of nonlinear autoregressive neural network model for time series data forecasting, using the stepwise method. Furthermore, the study determines the optimal number of neurons in the hidden layer, using a trial and error method for some architecture. The NARNN model is combined in three parts, namely the learning method, the activation function, and the ensemble operator, to get the best single model. Its application in this study was conducted on real data, such as the interest rate of Bank Indonesia. The comparison results of MASE, RMSE, and MAPE values with ARIMA and Exponential Smoothing models shows that the NARNN is the best model used to effectively improve forecasting accuracy.
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Keywords: Stepwise Method; Learning Method; Activation Function; Ensemble Operator; NARNN Model

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