PERAMALAN CURAH HUJAN EKSTRIM DI PROVINSI BANTEN DENGAN MODEL EKSTRIM SPASIAL

Abstract

Extreme rainfall can cause negative impacts such as floods, landslides, and crop failures. Extreme rainfall modeling using spatial extreme models can provide location information of the event. Spatial extreme models combine the extreme value theory, the max-stable process, and the geostatistical correlation function of F-madogram. The estimation of the return value on the spatial extreme models is performed using the copula approach. This research used monthly rainfall data from January 1998 until December 2014 at 19 rain stations in Banten Province. The results showed that there was a high spatial dependence on extreme rainfall data in Banten Province. The forecast in range 1.5 years showed the best result compared to other ranges (1 year, 3 years, and 5 years) with MAPE 20%. The pattern of extreme rainfall forecasting was similar to its actual value with a correlation of 0.7 to 0.8. The predicted location that has the highest extreme rainfall was the Pandeglang Regency. Extreme rainfall forecasting at 19 rain stations in Banten Province using spatial extreme models produced a good forecasting.