DOI: https://doi.org/10.14710/mkmi.22.1.1-6

Analisis Temporal dan Spasial Faktor Cuaca dengan Kasus Leptospirosis di Kota Semarang Tahun 2012-2021

1Fakultas Kedokteran, Kesehatan Masyarakat, dan Keperawatan, Universitas Gadjah Mada, Yogyakarta, Indonesia

2Dinas Kesehatan Kota Semarang, Semarang, Indonesia

Received: 16 May 2022; Revised: 10 Dec 2022; Accepted: 12 Dec 2022; Available online: 1 Feb 2023; Published: 26 Feb 2023.
Open Access Copyright (c) 2023 MEDIA KESEHATAN MASYARAKAT INDONESIA under http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/.

Citation Format:
Abstract

Latar belakang: Perubahan cuaca yang terjadi saat ini disebabkan oleh meningkatnya konsentrasi Gas Rumah Kaca dan dapat merubah elemen suhu, kelembaban, dan curah hujan. Meningkatnya iklim ekstrim basah menyebabkan beberapa daerah menjadi rawan banjir dan menjadi penyebab penyakit bawaan air seperti Leptospirosis. Tujuan penelitian ini yakni melihat hubungan temporal dan spasial faktor cuaca (suhu, kelembaban, curah hujan), kejadian banjir dengan kasus leptospirosis di Kota Semarang serta melihat prediksinya.

Metode: Data cuaca, kejadian banjir dan kasus leptospirosis selama 10 tahun (2012-2021) di dapatkan dari Stasiun Klimatologi Kelas 1 Semarang, Badan Pengendali Bencana Daerah Kota Semarang, dan Dinas Kesehatan Kota Semarang. Data temporal maupun spasial diolah menggunakan program R. Analisis menggunakan time lag 1 bulan – 3 bulan.

Hasil: Analisis statistik menunjukkan bahwa suhu lag 1 bulan, kelembaban lag 1 bulan, curah hujan lag 2 bulan, kejadian banjir lag 1 bulan berhubungan dengan kasus leptospirosis di Kota Semarang. Pola temporal menunjukkan pola yang simetris yakni apabila kasus naik maka kelembaban lag 1, curah hujan lag 2, kejadian banjir lag 1 mengalami kenaikan sedangkan untuk suhu mengalami pola terbalik. Sedangkan pola spasial menunjukkan ada hubungan yang konsisten pada tingkat kecamatan di Kota Semarang selama 10 tahun. Faktor cuaca dan kejadian banjir juga bisa menjadi prediktor kasus leptospirosis 1 bulan kedepan dengan tingkat RMSE 5.36%.

Simpulan: Faktor Cuaca dan Kejadian Banjir memiliki hubungan dengan adanya Kasus Leptospirosis di Kota Semarang dan dapat menjadi prediktor selama 1 bulan kedepan.

Kata kunci: cuaca, banjir, leptospirosis, spasial, temporal

 

ABSTRACT

Title: Temporal and Spatial Analysis of Weather Factors with Cases of Leptospirosis in Semarang City 2012-2021

Background: Current weather changes are caused by increased concentrations of greenhouse gases and can change the elements of temperature, humidity, and rainfall, The increasing extreme wet climate causes some areas to become prone to flooding and becomes the cause of water borne diseases such as Leptospirosis. The purpose of this study is to analyze the temporal and spatial relationship of weather factors (temperature, humidity, rainfall), flooding with cases of leptospirosis in Semarang City and see the predictions.

Method: Weather data, flooding and leptospirosis cases for 10 years (2012-2021) obtained from Semarang Class 1 Climatology Station,  Semarang City Regional Disaster Control Agency and Semarang City Health Office. Temporal and spatial data are processed using the R program. Analysis uses a time lag of 1 month – 3 months.

Result: Statistical analysis shows that temperature lag 1 month, humidity lag 1,rainfall lag 2 month, flood lag 1 month associated with cases of leptospirosis in Semarang City. Temporal patterns show a symmetrical pattern that is if the case rises then humidity lag 1, precipitation lag 2, the incidence of flooding lag 1 increase while for temperature experiences an inverse pattern. Meanwhile, spatial patterns shows that there is a consistent relationship at the sub-district level in Semarang City for 10 years. Weather factors and the incident of flooding can also be predictors of leptospirosis cases in the next 1 month with a RMSE rate of 4.92%.

Conclusion: Weather Factors and Flood Events have a relationship with the existence of Leptospirosis Cases in Semarang City and can be a predictor for the next 1 month.

Keywords: weather, flood, leptospirosis, spatial, temporal

Fulltext View|Download
Keywords: cuaca; banjir; leptospirosis; spasial; temporal

Article Metrics:

Article Info
Section: Research Article
Language : ID
Recent articles
Faktor-Faktor yang Berhubungan dengan Keluhan Gangguan Pernapasan pada Pekerja Mebel di Kecamatan Medan Satria Kota Bekasi Penerapan Teori Planned Behavior dalam Pemanfaatan Layanan PSC 119 Si Slamet Batang pada Kasus Kecelakaan Lalu Lintas Gambaran Penanganan Keluhan di Rumah Sakit Amal Sehat Wonogiri More recent articles
Most cited articles
Pemanfaatan Prolanis di Fasilitas Kesehatan Tingkat Pertama Wilayah Kota Depok Faktor Risiko Kejadian Tuberkulosis Paru di Kecamatan Baturetno Kabupaten Wonogiri Perilaku Wanita Pekerja Seks dalam Pencegahan Infeksi Menular Seksual (Studi Kualitatif Pada Anak Asuh di Lokalisasi Gembol, Sukosari, Bawen, Kabupaten Semarang) Analisis Karakteristik Lingkungan Pada Kejadian Leptospirosis di Kabupaten Demak Jawa Tengah Tahun 2009 More cited articles
  1. Lawler, Jill (Unicef). Children’s Vulnerability to Climate Change and Disaster Impacts in East Asia and the Pacific, 2011. http://www.unicef.org/media/files/Climate_Change_Regional_Report_14_Nov_final.pdf
  2. Kementerian PPN/Bappenas. “Rencana Pembangunan Jangka Menengah Nasional 2020-2024.” Rencana Pembangunan Jangka Menengah Nasional 2020-2024 (2019): 178–201
  3. IPCC. Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van Der Linden and C.E. Hanson, Eds. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2007. www.ipcc.ch
  4. Utariningsih, Wheny, and Agung Adiputra. “Analisis Kerentanan Kesehatan Penduduk Pra-Bencana Banjir Di Kabupaten Aceh Barat Daya.” AVERROUS: Jurnal Kedokteran dan Kesehatan Malikussaleh 5, no. 2 (2019): 1
  5. WHO. “Flooding and Communicable Diseases Fact Sheet Risk Assessment and Preventive Measures.” Most, no. March (2000): 1–9
  6. Suripin, Suripin, and Dwi Kurniani. “Pengaruh Perubahan Iklim Terhadap Hidrograf Banjir Di Kanal Banjir Timur Kota Semarang.” Media Komunikasi Teknik Sipil 22, no. 2 (2016): 119
  7. Dinas Kesehatan kota Semarang. “Profil Kesehatan Kota Semarang 2019.” Dinkes.Semarang.Go.Id (2020): 1–104. http://www.depkes.go.id/resources/download/profil/PROFIL_KAB_KOTA_2015/3374_Jateng_Kota_Semarang_2015.pdf
  8. Clara, S Arias-Monsalve, and Builes-Jaramillo Alejandro. “Impact of El Nino-Southern Oscillation on Human Leptospirosis in Colombia at Different Spatial Scales.” The Journal of Infection in Developing Countrier 13, no. 12 (2019): 1108–1116
  9. Duarte, Juliana Lúcia, and Leandro Luiz Giatti. “Leptospirosis Incidence in a State Capital in the Western Brazilian Amazon and Its Relationship with Climate and Environmental Variability, 2008-2013.” Epidemiologia e servicos de saude : revista do Sistema Unico de Saude do Brasil 28, no. 1 (2019): e2017224
  10. López, María S., Gabriela V. Müller, Miguel A. Lovino, Andrea A. Gómez, Walter F. Sione, and Luis Aragonés Pomares. “Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Leptospirosis Incidence and Its Relationship with Hydroclimatic Indicators in Northeastern Argentina.” Science of the Total Environment, 2019
  11. Dhewantara, Pandji Wibawa, Wenbiao Hu, Wenyi Zhang, Wen Wu Yin, Fan Ding, Abdullah Al Mamun, and Ricardo J. Soares Magalhães. “Climate Variability, Satellite-Derived Physical Environmental Data and Human Leptospirosis: A Retrospective Ecological Study in China.” Environmental Research 176, no. June (2019)
  12. Benacer, D, K L Thong, N C Min, K B Verasahib, and ... “Epidemiology of Human Leptospirosis in Malaysia, 2004–2012.” Acta Tropica 157 (2016): 162–168. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0001706X16300419?casa_token=mPaDi8_YJmAAAAAA:zLN7u0pXZuR9_VV62H32sQ0hRpv0U-SCeSE7gOivGsQoQCMD3qWSonXDmL2MpIPPuQfBGSfO
  13. Desvars, Amélie, Sylvaine Jégo, Frédéric Chiroleu, Pascale Bourhy, Eric Cardinale, and Alain Michault. “Seasonality of Human Leptospirosis in Reunion Island (Indian Ocean) and Its Association with Meteorological Data.” PLoS ONE 6, no. 5 (2011)
  14. Chadsuthi, Sudarat, Sopon Iamsirithaworn, Wannapong Triampo, and Charin Modchang. “Modeling Seasonal Leptospirosis Transmission and Its Association with Climate Factors in Thailand Using Time-Series and ARIMAX Analyses.” Asian Pasific Journal of Tropical Medicine (2012): 539–546
  15. Cano-Pérez, Eder, Steev Loyola, Fabián Espitia-Almeida, Jaison Torres-Pacheco, Dacia Malambo-García, and Doris Gómez-Camargo. “Climatic Variability and Human Leptospirosis Cases in Cartagena, Colombia: A 10-Year Ecological Study.” The American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene 106, no. 3 (2022): 785–791. https://www.ajtmh.org/view/journals/tpmd/106/3/article-p785.xml
  16. Pawar, Shivshakti Dattatray, Maruti Kore, A Athalye, and P S Thombre. “Seasonality of Leptospirosis and Its Association with Rainfall and Humidity in Ratnagiri, Maharashtra.” International Journal of Health & Allied Sciences 7, no. 1 (2018): 37–40
  17. Hirschauer, C, E Daudens, C Coudert, E Frogier, and G Melix. “Epidemiology of Leptospirosis in French Polynesia from 2006 to 2008 [in French].” Bulletin Epidemiologique Hebdomadaire (2009): 508–511
  18. Tassinari, WS, DCP Pellegrini, CBP Sa´, RB Reis, and AI Ko. “Detection and Modelling of Case Clusters for Urban Leptospirosis.” Trop Med Int Health 13 (2008): 503–512
  19. Mohan, ARM, A Cumberbatch, AA Adesiyun, and DD Chadee. “Epidemiology of Human Leptospirosis in Trinidad and Tobago, 1996-2007: A Retrospective Study.” Acta Tropica 112 (2009): 260–265
  20. Pappachan, MJ, M Sheela, and KP Aravindan. “Relation of Rainfall Pattern and Epidemic Leptospirosis in the Indian State of Kerala.” J Epidermiol Community Health 58 (2004): 1054–1055
  21. Gaynor, K, AR Katz, SY Park, M Nakata, and TA Clark. “Leptospirosis on Oahu: An Outbreak Associated with Flooding of a University Campus.” American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene 76 (2007): 882–886
  22. Nugraha, Arief Laila. “Peningkatan Akurasi Dan Presisi Analisa Spasial Pemodelan Banjir Kota Semarang Menggunakan Kombinasi Sistem Informasi Geografis Dan Metode Logika Fuzzy.” Teknik 39, no. 1 (2018): 16–24. http://ejournal.undip.ac.id/index.php/teknik
  23. Zam, Mahalul, Oktia Woro Kasmini Handayani, and Sugiharto Sugiharto. “Pos Informasi Leptospirosis Di Kawasan Air Rob Kota Semarang.” Rekayasa 16, no. 2 (2019): 219–228
  24. Erlani, Ria, and Widyasari Her Nugrahandika. “Ketangguhan Kota Semarang Dalam Menghadapi Bencana Banjir Pasang Air Laut (Rob).” Journal of Regional and Rural Development Planning 3, no. 1 (2019): 47
  25. Martini, Martini, Retno Hestiningsih, M Arie Wuryanto, Sri Yuliawati, and Sudjut Hariyanto. “Sosialisasi Pencegahan Leptospirosis Melalui Pengendalian Kepadatan Tikus Dan Pengelolaan Sampah Rumah Tangga Kepada Warga Kelurahan Srondol Kota Semarang.” In Seminar Nasional Pengabdian Kepada Masyarakat UNDIP 2020, 1:19–22, 2020
  26. Azmi, Oktiavany. “Studi Deskriptif Karakteristik Individu Dan Faktor Lingkungan Dengan Kejadian Leptospirosis Di Wilayah Kerja Puskesmas Pegandan Semarang Tahun 2015.” Universitas Negeri Semarang, 2016. http://lib.unnes.ac.id/28037/1/6411411122.pdf

Last update:

No citation recorded.

Last update: 2024-11-19 16:49:30

No citation recorded.