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Analisis Temporal dan Spasial Faktor Cuaca dengan Kasus Leptospirosis di Kota Semarang Tahun 2012-2021

1Fakultas Kedokteran, Kesehatan Masyarakat, dan Keperawatan, Universitas Gadjah Mada, Yogyakarta, Indonesia

2Dinas Kesehatan Kota Semarang, Semarang, Indonesia

Received: 16 May 2022; Revised: 10 Dec 2022; Accepted: 12 Dec 2022; Available online: 1 Feb 2023; Published: 26 Feb 2023.
Open Access Copyright (c) 2023 MEDIA KESEHATAN MASYARAKAT INDONESIA under http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/.

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Abstract

Latar belakang: Perubahan cuaca yang terjadi saat ini disebabkan oleh meningkatnya konsentrasi Gas Rumah Kaca dan dapat merubah elemen suhu, kelembaban, dan curah hujan. Meningkatnya iklim ekstrim basah menyebabkan beberapa daerah menjadi rawan banjir dan menjadi penyebab penyakit bawaan air seperti Leptospirosis. Tujuan penelitian ini yakni melihat hubungan temporal dan spasial faktor cuaca (suhu, kelembaban, curah hujan), kejadian banjir dengan kasus leptospirosis di Kota Semarang serta melihat prediksinya.

Metode: Data cuaca, kejadian banjir dan kasus leptospirosis selama 10 tahun (2012-2021) di dapatkan dari Stasiun Klimatologi Kelas 1 Semarang, Badan Pengendali Bencana Daerah Kota Semarang, dan Dinas Kesehatan Kota Semarang. Data temporal maupun spasial diolah menggunakan program R. Analisis menggunakan time lag 1 bulan – 3 bulan.

Hasil: Analisis statistik menunjukkan bahwa suhu lag 1 bulan, kelembaban lag 1 bulan, curah hujan lag 2 bulan, kejadian banjir lag 1 bulan berhubungan dengan kasus leptospirosis di Kota Semarang. Pola temporal menunjukkan pola yang simetris yakni apabila kasus naik maka kelembaban lag 1, curah hujan lag 2, kejadian banjir lag 1 mengalami kenaikan sedangkan untuk suhu mengalami pola terbalik. Sedangkan pola spasial menunjukkan ada hubungan yang konsisten pada tingkat kecamatan di Kota Semarang selama 10 tahun. Faktor cuaca dan kejadian banjir juga bisa menjadi prediktor kasus leptospirosis 1 bulan kedepan dengan tingkat RMSE 5.36%.

Simpulan: Faktor Cuaca dan Kejadian Banjir memiliki hubungan dengan adanya Kasus Leptospirosis di Kota Semarang dan dapat menjadi prediktor selama 1 bulan kedepan.

Kata kunci: cuaca, banjir, leptospirosis, spasial, temporal

 

ABSTRACT

Title: Temporal and Spatial Analysis of Weather Factors with Cases of Leptospirosis in Semarang City 2012-2021

Background: Current weather changes are caused by increased concentrations of greenhouse gases and can change the elements of temperature, humidity, and rainfall, The increasing extreme wet climate causes some areas to become prone to flooding and becomes the cause of water borne diseases such as Leptospirosis. The purpose of this study is to analyze the temporal and spatial relationship of weather factors (temperature, humidity, rainfall), flooding with cases of leptospirosis in Semarang City and see the predictions.

Method: Weather data, flooding and leptospirosis cases for 10 years (2012-2021) obtained from Semarang Class 1 Climatology Station,  Semarang City Regional Disaster Control Agency and Semarang City Health Office. Temporal and spatial data are processed using the R program. Analysis uses a time lag of 1 month – 3 months.

Result: Statistical analysis shows that temperature lag 1 month, humidity lag 1,rainfall lag 2 month, flood lag 1 month associated with cases of leptospirosis in Semarang City. Temporal patterns show a symmetrical pattern that is if the case rises then humidity lag 1, precipitation lag 2, the incidence of flooding lag 1 increase while for temperature experiences an inverse pattern. Meanwhile, spatial patterns shows that there is a consistent relationship at the sub-district level in Semarang City for 10 years. Weather factors and the incident of flooding can also be predictors of leptospirosis cases in the next 1 month with a RMSE rate of 4.92%.

Conclusion: Weather Factors and Flood Events have a relationship with the existence of Leptospirosis Cases in Semarang City and can be a predictor for the next 1 month.

Keywords: weather, flood, leptospirosis, spatial, temporal

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Keywords: cuaca; banjir; leptospirosis; spasial; temporal

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