skip to main content

Socio-Economic Prospects of Solar PV Uptake in Energy Policy Landscape of Pakistan

1Mechanical Engineering Department, University of Engineering and Technology, Taxila, Pakistan

2Sustainable Development Policy Institute (SDPI), Islamabad, Pakistan

Received: 24 Apr 2022; Revised: 8 Jun 2022; Accepted: 16 Jun 2022; Available online: 28 Jun 2022; Published: 1 Nov 2022.
Editor(s): H. Hadiyanto
Open Access Copyright (c) 2022 The Author(s). Published by Centre of Biomass and Renewable Energy (CBIORE)
Creative Commons License This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Citation Format:
Abstract
Despite global calls for climate change and its impacts in past decade, energy sector of Pakistan has remained highly dominated by high-cost carbon-intensive resources. Although a significant number of policies have been put forward by both provincial and federal government in last three years, the ground-level implementation of these policies is non-existent, and Pakistan’s progress is still far behind the developed countries. This study therefore performs a socio-economic analysis of solar PV potential in Pakistan and how recent policies can be mobilized to upscale the utilization of solar PV both as an on-grid and off-grid generation source. This also links to solar potential for corporate sector engagements in their Net-Zero Pathways. The methodological approach uses a Low Emission Analysis Platform (LEAP) model designed for Pakistan’s Power System supplies under three different scenarios i.e., Energy Transition Scenario, Conventional Generation Scenarios, and Business as Usual Scenario. Indicative Generation Capacity Expansion Plan (IGCEP 2021) along with recent policies is used as the leading data source for driving the capacity additions. The results obtained from the model indicates that despite having a large potential, under currently policies the share of solar in total grid power generation will remain under 2% by 2030. Under Energy Transition Scenario, the model runs under a least cost optimization plan leading to a higher uptake of solar power. As per this scenario, the share of renewable increase beyond 2030 to achieve a share of around 50% by 2045. This can lead to cumulative carbon reductions of around 2000 Mt by 2030 and economic savings of around $ 5 billion. Based on the model results, this study also identifies the possible pathways for upcoming iterations of Pakistan IGCEP plan that builds around solar PV
Fulltext View|Download
Keywords: Solar Energy; Energy Planning; Energy Policy; LEAP; Energy Generation

Article Metrics:

  1. AEDB. (2019a). Alternative and Renewable Energy Policy 2019. https://aedb.org/draft-are-policy-2019
  2. AEDB. (2019b). ARE policy 2019. http://www.aedb.org/draft-are-policy-2019-version-2-july-21-2019
  3. Ahmed, N., Khan, A. N., Ahmed, N., Aslam, A., Imran, K., Sajid, M. B., & Waqas, A. (2021). Techno-economic potential assessment of mega scale grid-connected PV power plant in five climate zones of Pakistan. Energy Conversion and Management, 237, 114097. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enconman.2021.114097
  4. Alam, K. (2021). Sindh mulls legal challenge to Indicative Generation Capacity Expansion Plan. https://www.dawn.com/news/1645058
  5. Amo-Aidoo, A., Kumi, E. N., Hensel, O., Korese, J. K., & Sturm, B. (2022). Solar Energy Policy Implementation in Ghana: A LEAP Model Analysis. Scientific African, e01162. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sciaf.2022.e01162
  6. Analytics, C. (2020). Coal Phase out-Global and Regional Perspective
  7. Aslam, H. (2020). Discussion on Indicative Generation Capacity Expansion Plan (IGCEP) 2047 between different stakeholders
  8. Aslam, H., Nazir, A., & Zia, U. (2019.). Pakistan ’ s Way Forward towards a Green Economy : Perspectives for a Clean Energy Transition
  9. Aslam, H., Nazir, A., & Zia, U. (2021a). Pakistan’s Way Forward towards a Green Economy: Perspectives for a Clean Energy Transition. https://sdpi.org/publications/pakistans-way-forward-towards-a-green-economy-perspectives-for-a-clean-energy-transition/
  10. Aslam, H., Nazir, A., & Zia, U. ur R. (2021b). Prospects of Coal Investments and Potential of Renewable Energy Transition in Thar Region of Pakistan. https://sdpi.org/publications/prospects-of-coal-investments-and-potential-of-renewable-energy-transition-in-thar-region-of-pakistan-2/
  11. Aslam, H., Zia, U., Mirza, S., & Sharif, M. (2022). Green recovery from COVID-19: Outlook for Pakistan’s Energy and Power Sector
  12. Bank, W. (2021). Variable Renewable Energy Locational Study
  13. Bank, W. (2022). Variable Renewable Energy Competitive Bidding Study. https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/37405
  14. Bhutto, A. W., Bazmi, A. A., & Zahedi, G. (2012). Greener energy: Issues and challenges for Pakistan-Solar energy prospective. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 16(5), 2762–2780. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2012.02.043
  15. C.G, H. (2016). Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) system. https://www.energycommunity.org
  16. CPEC Projects Progress Update. (2019)
  17. Dellosa, J. T. (2016). Potential Effect and Analysis of High Residential Solar Photovoltaic (PV) Systems Penetration to an Electric Distribution Utility (DU). International Journal of Renewable Energy Development, 5(3), 179-185 https://doi.org/10.14710/ijred.5.3.179-185
  18. Dondariya, C., Porwal, D., Awasthi, A., Shukla, A. K., Sudhakar, K., S.R., M. M., & Bhimte, A. (2018). Performance simulation of grid-connected rooftop solar PV system for small households: A case study of Ujjain, India. Energy Reports, 4, 546–553. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.egyr.2018.08.002
  19. Eckstein, D., Hutfils, M.-L., & Winges, M. (2019). Global climate risk index 2019. Germanwatch: Bonn, Germany
  20. ENERCON. (2006). National Energy Conservation Policy 2006
  21. GOP. (2002). Policy of power generation projects (2002)
  22. Guno, C. S., Agaton, C. B., Villanueva, R. O., & Villanueva, R. O. (2021). Optimal investment strategy for solar PV integration in residential buildings: A case study in the Philippines. International Journal of Renewable Energy Development, 10(1), 79–89. https://doi.org/10.14710/ijred.2021.32657
  23. Hina Aslam, Vaqar Ahmed, Michael Williamson, Faran Rana, U. ur R. Z. (2020). Reform Priorities for Pakistan’s Energy Sector: Perspectives in the Backdrop of Paris Agreement
  24. Hu, G., Ma, X., & Ji, J. (2019). Scenarios and policies for sustainable urban energy development based on LEAP model–A case study of a postindustrial city: Shenzhen China. Applied Energy, 238, 876–886. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2019.01.162
  25. IEA. (2020). Renewables 2020: Analysis and Forecasts to 2025
  26. IEA. (2021a). Renewables 2021: Analysis and Forecast to 2026
  27. IEA. (2021b). World Energy Outlook 2021
  28. IMF. (2021). IMF Country Report 2021
  29. Intelligency, M. (2022). Pakistan Solar Energy Market - Growth, Trends, Covid-19 Impact, and Forecasts (2022-2027)
  30. IPCC. (2014). AR5 Synthesis Report: Climate Change 2014
  31. IRENA. (2018a). Renewable Energy Policies in a Time of Transition. https://www.irena.org/publications/2018/Apr/Renewable-energy-policies-in-a-time-of-transition
  32. IRENA. (2018b). Renewables Readiness Assessment: Pakistan. https://www.irena.org/-/media/Files/IRENA/Agency/Publication/2018/Apr/IRENA_RRA_Pakistan_2018.pdf
  33. IRENA. (2020). Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2020
  34. IRENA. (2022). World Energy Transitions Outlook 2022: 1.5 C Pathway. https://irena.org/publications/2022/Mar/World-Energy-Transitions-Outlook-2022#:~:text=This second edition of the,on the path to 2050
  35. Isaad, H. (2020). Evaluating the emissions impact and economic feasibility of coal power plants under the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) in Pakistan
  36. Jan, I., Ullah, W., & Ashfaq, M. (2020). Social acceptability of solar photovoltaic system in Pakistan: Key determinants and policy implications. Journal of Cleaner Production, 274, 123140. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2020.123140
  37. Javed, S. A. (2021). Socioeconomic Impact of Coronavirus Disease 2019 in South Asia: Fiscal Policy Response and Fiscal Needs for Supporting the Economic Recovery. https://www.unescap.org/kp/2021/working-paper-socioeconomic-impact-coronavirus-disease-2019-south-asia-fiscal-policy
  38. Kabala, R. M., Moussavou, A. A. A., & Adonis, M. (2021). Energy Access Assessment of Pakistan. AIUE Proceedings of the 2nd Energy and Human Habitat Conference. http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3901365
  39. Khalil, H. B., & Abas, N. (2014). Smart grids: An approach to integrate the renewable energies and efficiently manage the energy system of Pakistan. Fifth International Conference on Computing, Communications and Networking Technologies (ICCCNT), 1–7. DOI: 10.1109/ICCCNT.2014.6963060
  40. Lea, T. H., Pham, M. T., Hadiyanto, H., & Hoang, A. T. (2021). Influence of Various Basin Types on Performance of Passive Solar Still: A Review. International Journal of Renewable Energy Development, 10(4). https://doi.org/10.14710/ijred.2021.38394
  41. Lin, B., & Jia, Z. (2020). Science of the Total Environment Economic , energy and environmental impact of coal-to-electricity policy in China : A dynamic recursive CGE study. Science of the Total Environment, 698(x), 134241. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.134241
  42. Ling, Z., Saydaliev, H. B., & Ma, X. (2022). Does green finance investment and technological innovation improve Renewable Energy Efficiency and Sustainable Development Goals. Renewable Energy. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2022.04.161
  43. Liu, Y., Zuo, K., Liu, X. A., Liu, J., & Kennedy, J. M. (2018). Dynamic pricing for decentralized energy trading in micro-grids. Applied Energy, 228(May), 689–699. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2018.06.124
  44. Mirjat, N. H., Uqaili, M. A., Harijan, K., Valasai, G. Das, Shaikh, F., & Waris, M. (2017a). A review of energy and power planning and policies of Pakistan. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 79(March), 110–127. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2017.05.040
  45. Mirjat, N. H., Uqaili, M. A., Harijan, K., Valasai, G. Das, Shaikh, F., & Waris, M. (2017b). A review of energy and power planning and policies of Pakistan. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 79(March), 110–127. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2017.05.040
  46. Mirjat, N. H., Uqaili, M. A., Harijan, K., Walasai, G. Das, Mondal, M. A. H., & Sahin, H. (2018). Long-term electricity demand forecast and supply side scenarios for Pakistan (2015–2050): A LEAP model application for policy analysis. Energy, 165, 512–526. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2018.10.012
  47. MoCC. (2021). Pakistan Updated NDC 2021
  48. MoPD&R. (2014). Pakistan 2025: One Nation-One Vision. https://www.pc.gov.pk/uploads/vision2025/Pakistan-Vision-2025.pdf
  49. Natarajan, Y., Murugesan, P. K., Mohan, M., & Khan, S. A. L. A. (2020). Abrasive Water Jet Machining process: A state of art of review. Journal of Manufacturing Processes, 49, 271–322
  50. NEECA. (2020). NEECA strategic plan 2020-23. https://neeca.gov.pk/SiteImage/Misc/files/NEECA Strategic Plan 2020-23 Final 28 October 2020(1).pdf
  51. NEPRA. (2018). NEPRA State of Industry Report 2018. https://www.nepra.org.pk/publications/State of Industry Reports/State of Industry Report 2018.pdf
  52. NEPRA. (2021). NEPRA State of Industry Report 2021. https://nepra.org.pk/publications/State of Industry Reports.php
  53. Nicholas, S. (2020). Thar Coal Locking Pakistan Into Unsustainable Capacity Payments. https://ieefa.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Thar-Coal-Locking-Pakistan-Into-Unsustainable-Capacity-Payments_June-2020.pdf
  54. NREL. (2020). Covid-19 And The Power Sector In Southeast Asia: Impacts And Opportunities
  55. NTDC. (2021). Indicative Generation Capacity Expansion Plan (IGCEP) 2021. https://nepra.org.pk/Admission Notices/2021/06 June/IGCEP 2021.pdf
  56. Pakistan Economic Survey 2020-21. (2021)
  57. Pakistan, H. D. institute of. (2020). Pakistan Energy Yearbook 2019
  58. Raza, M. A., Khatri, K. L., Haque, M. I. U., Shahid, M., Rafique, K., & Waseer, T. A. (2022). Holistic and scientific approach to the development of sustainable energy policy framework for energy security in Pakistan. Energy Reports, 8, 4282–4302. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.egyr.2022.03.044
  59. SEI. (2005). LEAP User Guide. https://unfccc.int/resource/cd_roms/na1/mitigation/Module_5/Module_5_1/b_tools/LEAP/Manuals/Leap_Use_Guide_English.pdf
  60. (SEI), S. E. I. (2022). Low Emission Analysis Platform (LEAP). https://www.sei.org/projects-and-tools/tools/leap-long-range-energy-alternatives-planning-system
  61. Shahzad, M. K., Zahid, A., Rashid, T., Rehan, M. A., Ali, M., & Ahmad, M. (2017). Techno-economic feasibility analysis of a solar-biomass off grid system for the electrification of remote rural areas in Pakistan using HOMER software. Renewable Energy, 106, 264–273. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2017.01.033
  62. Sher, A., & Qiu, Y. (2022). Pakistan’s solar mission: Do solar finance and subsidy remove the barriers to solar installations? Renewable Energy, 190, 993–1005. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2022.03.047
  63. Suherman, S., Susanto, E. E., Widuri, H., Patricia, S., & Sutrisna, R. J. (2020). Energy analysis of a hybrid solar dryer for drying coffee beans.International Journal of Renewable Energy Development, 9(1),131-139. https://doi.org/10.14710/ijred.9.1.131-139
  64. UN-ESCAP, S. and. (2020). Evidence-Based Policies for Sustainable Use of Energy in Asia and the Pacific : Pakistan. https://www.unescap.org/our-work/energy/energy-sustainable-development/evidence-based-policies/pakistan
  65. UNDP. (2021). Merged Areas Electrification Study. https://www.undp.org/pakistan/projects/merged-areas-governance-project#:~:text=UNDP finalized a diagnostic study,political economy of the region
  66. Wattana, B., & Aungyut, P. (2022). Impacts of Solar Electricity Generation on the Thai Electricity Industry. International Journal of Renewable Energy Development, 11(1), 157-163. https://doi.org/10.14710/ijred.2022.41059
  67. World Bank. (2020). Variable Renewable Energy Integration and Planning Study. In Variable Renewable Energy Integration and Planning Study. https://doi.org/10.1596/34586
  68. Yang, D., Liu, D., Huang, A., Lin, J., & Xu, L. (2021). Critical transformation pathways and socio-environmental benefits of energy substitution using a LEAP scenario modeling. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 135, 110116. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2020.110116
  69. Zafar, T., Zafar, K., Zafar, J., & Gibson, A. A. P. (2016). Integration of 750 MW renewable solar power to national grid of Pakistan – An economic and technical perspective. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 59, 1209–1219. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2016.01.073
  70. Zia, U. U. R., ur Rashid, T., Awan, W. N., Hussain, A., & Ali, M. (2020). Quantification and technological assessment of bioenergy generation through agricultural residues in Punjab (Pakistan). Biomass and Bioenergy, 139, 105612. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biombioe.2020.105612
  71. Zia, U. U. R., ur Rashid, T., nazir Awan, W., Ahmed, T. Bin, Siddique, M. A., Habib, M. F., & Asid, R. M. (2019). Technological Assessment of Bio Energy Production through Livestock Waste in Azad Jammu and Kashmir (AJK). 2019 International Conference on Electrical, Communication, and Computer Engineering (ICECCE), 1–5. https://doi.org/10.1109/ICECCE47252.2019.8940741

Last update:

No citation recorded.

Last update: 2024-02-28 04:31:21

No citation recorded.