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Machine Learning Models Based on Random Forest Feature Selection and Bayesian Optimization for Predicting Daily Global Solar Radiation

1Moulay Ismail University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physics, Team of Renewable energy and energy efficiency, BP 11201, Zitoune, Meknes, Morocco

2Moulay Ismail University, Faculty of Science and Technique, Mining, Water and Environmental Engineering Laboratory, BP 509, Boutalamine, Errachidia, Morocco

3Moulay Ismail University, ENSAM, Laboratory of Mathematical and Computational Modeling, Marjane II, BP 15290, Al Mansour, 50000, Meknes, Morocco

4 Moulay Ismail University, Faculty of Science, Department of Geology, Laboratory of Water Sciences and environmental engineering, BP 11201, Zitoune, Meknes, Morocco

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Received: 16 Sep 2021; Revised: 15 Nov 2021; Accepted: 28 Nov 2021; Available online: 6 Dec 2021; Published: 1 Feb 2022.
Editor(s): H Hadiyanto
Open Access Copyright (c) 2022 The Authors. Published by Centre of Biomass and Renewable Energy (CBIORE)
Creative Commons License This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

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Abstract
Prediction of daily global solar radiation  with simple and highly accurate models would be beneficial for solar energy conversion systems. In this paper, we proposed a hybrid machine learning methodology integrating two feature selection methods and a Bayesian optimization algorithm to predict H in the city of Fez, Morocco. First, we identified the most significant predictors using two Random Forest methods of feature importance: Mean Decrease in Impurity (MDI) and Mean Decrease in Accuracy (MDA). Then, based on the feature selection results, ten models were developed and compared: (1) five standalone machine learning (ML) models including Classification and Regression Trees (CART), Random Forests (RF), Bagged Trees Regression (BTR), Support Vector Regression (SVR), and Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP); and (2) the same models tuned by the Bayesian optimization (BO) algorithm: CART-BO, RF-BO, BTR-BO, SVR-BO, and MLP-BO. Both MDI and MDA techniques revealed that extraterrestrial solar radiation and sunshine duration fraction were the most influential features. The BO approach improved the predictive accuracy of MLP, CART, SVR, and BTR models and prevented the CART model from overfitting. The best improvements were obtained using the MLP model, where RMSE and MAE were reduced by 17.6% and 17.2%, respectively. Among the studied models, the SVR-BO algorithm provided the best trade-off between prediction accuracy (RMSE=0.4473kWh/m²/day, MAE=0.3381kWh/m²/day, and R²=0.9465), stability (with a 0.0033kWh/m²/day increase in RMSE), and computational cost.
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Keywords: Feature selection; Mean Decrease in Accuracy; Mean Decrease in Impurity; Bayesian optimization; Solar radiation

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